Online English Conversation Course for PhD Students
Wednesday, 23 November 2016
Week 3 [21-27.11.2016] - Possible decline in the acceleration of technological innovation
Hello,
recently while browsing YouTube, I came across a video presentation on the subject of a possible decline in the acceleration of technological innovation. You can watch it below:
This article, although quiet old, does state that the rate of inovation peaked in the year 1873 and ever since then it is rapidly declining. It is calculated that we are at around 90% of the economic limit of technology and by 2038 we will reach 95%. Every major breakthrough will be more costly because of the complexity that is involved. Another article tries to measure the unit costs of many technologies by formulating Moore's law. This allows to estimate the probability that a given technology outperforms another at a given point in the future. However there are some flaws with Moore's law. The main observation that it described (doubling of number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit every 18 months) starts to not be entirely true in the recent years.
Please answer the following questions:
1. Do you think that further innovations will be much tougher and take longer to achieve?
2. Do you know of any other phenomena that could be described by Moore's law?
3. What future innovations are you most excited about and when do you predict they will occur?
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1. Do you think that further innovations will be much tougher and take longer to achieve?
ReplyDeleteI think that nowadays we seem to have so many innovations, but they are not so important for our life because they are not changing it. As an example I would like to consider landline phone that was the only option 20 years ago, and now we have mobile phones - that was a huge change for people, but still the invention of phone as a general was the biggest change for human beings. Going further do You see any option of making inventions in phone area? Will the new phone model with a little better display or camera has great significance in comparison to the phone invention itself?
2. Do you know of any other phenomena that could be described by Moore's law?
I read articles last year that already seems outdated. It was obvious that this process sooner or later will have to stop or slow down. Especially if we consider that the normal group of users is not so hard to please them. They are using only a web browser and doing basic operations and they do not need advanced computers. Differences may be visible for graphic designers, programmers, etc.
3. What future innovations are you most excited about and when do you predict they will occur?
I think that there are not many inventions left that can meet our basic needs, everything is already discovered, we can only improve the technology to make producing them cheaper or more durable. As we know we can always discover something that we never dreamed about. This are probably discoveries that I can not wait for.
The next advancement in telecommunication might be some brain implants which works like telepathy. ;) My third question was regarding things that are envisioned but not yet created and fully functional, something like i.e. the quantum computer. There are many inventions that still await completion.
Delete1. Do you think that further innovations will be much tougher and take longer to achieve?
ReplyDeleteThe article raises an interesting question which one might say has its roots in the Renaissance. Back then the goal of intellectual individuals was to study all the important domains - from Mathematics, Astronomy to Aesthetics and Art. When the decades and centuries passed, science progressed accordingly making it now impossible for one person to perfectly grasp more than several scientific subjects. What is more, we no longer have experts in Mathematics, Medicine or Computer Science but in Algebraic Topology, Neural Networks, Child Anaesthesiology etc. In my opinion, though it is natural that human progress has reached such extents that it is incredibly hard to make new discoveries, this means that in the future there will be even more branches in every science path and people will be making huge discoveries narrower paths.
2. Do you know of any other phenomena that could be described by Moore's law?
No, but it sounds interesting if there is.
3. What future innovations are you most excited about and when do you predict they will occur?
I am looking forward to all innovations in medicine, helping more people have perfect vision, hearing, easier transplantations and providing people with better quality of life when they age.
I totally agree with you, further inventions will be done in these narrow paths, since it is very hard to envision a completely new field of study. Advancement of technology in the healthcare sector is indeed one that could bring joy and hope to millions of people.
DeleteMichail – thanks for very interesting materials. I am fond of this guy from presented YouTube video and in the future I will follow him in his other movies. Generally I agree with Sharkee analysis. I reckon we are slowing down, not because we are reaching our limits, but rather because governments have become too big and their regulations and debts are strangling the progress and people who would otherwise be great, for the purpose of control. Progress won't work under dominion, it can only work through freedom and open mind.
ReplyDeleteTherefore to develop our world We should upgrade our brains so each one of us can amass more information, process it faster and more efficiently, and interface with machines for faster access to data and faster communication. There are many risks obviously (possible loss of individuality, hacking, etc) but it's probably worth it if we think of the brilliant future we could create for our species.
As far as the future innovation is concerned I am still waiting impatiently for a moment when VR really start their potential and switch our lives into Matrix like in the Matrix movie. It will be a great step for our civilization. We can abandon our old bodies and live forever in VR world.
I am pleased to hear, that you enjoyed the material. Maybe we already live in VR. However VR alone will not solve the issue of biological decay and therefore we won't be able to live for ever. Perhaps a better solution is to somehow copy the conciousness and preserve it in an electronic form (maybe it will be called e-conciousness ;) ).
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ReplyDelete1. Do you think that further innovations will be much tougher and take longer to achieve?
ReplyDeleteIt depends what we call an innovation. Clever marketing guys have some ways to even accelerate the rate of innovation (simply call something this way, even if it is well known for 30 years).
In terms of the article you mentioned, it seems that what they really mean by innovation could as well be named breakthrough.
Speaking of which, it is really hard for humans to actually grasp the required knowledge. That's why we tend to specialize... However, the problem with this approach is communication. Since nobody really understands the complexity of modern science, it is getting harder and harder to see patterns that could lead to breakthroughs... Maybe someday we will come up with Artificial Intelligence that will be able to solve these problems for us. However, personally I doubt that I will live to see it.
2. Do you know of any other phenomena that could be described by Moore's law?
I will argue that it has much more in common with Divide and Conquer algorithm, rather than Moore's law. Besides, I haven't studied law, so I can't really see such phenomenas (should it be phenomeni?) :)
3. What future innovations are you most excited about and when do you predict they will occur?
Let me grab my crystal ball... Hm... Individual anti-gravitational pods? No, no way. I won't live that long.
By no means, I am a futurist. And I don't think anyone can make good predictions about breakthroughs. Could you imagine nanotechnology or metamaterials back in 2000? I bet you couldn't. And now they are revolutionizing material science... God only knows what will be possible in the future... They say that with carefully structured materials, they can build a bridge weighting 1,5 kilograms and still being able to support cars and pedestrians..
Thanks for sharing your opinion. Ray Kurzweill, computer scientist and futurist, made a prediction that by 2045 we might reach the technological singularity. That's just 30 more years so it's totally within our lifetimes reach. ;)
Delete1. Do you think that further innovations will be much tougher and take longer to achieve?
ReplyDeleteMr Sharkee mentioned that cost to accuire sufficient knowledge about science increase every year. Of course we could specialize in one subject but there probably subjects where there is no possible chances to add any contribution in that area. Different time requires different science approach and different subjects to be studied. Additionally there are technology limits make brake breakthrough. Without X-rays we would be forced to dangerous surgery operations to risky diagnose many diseases. Without computers we would be forced to tremendous human calculation that could end with mistakes. If I could make some private issue I already reach some technology resistance. My current research cannot be calculated in the reasonable time without faster computers. I am starting to negotiate access to university super computer to speed up research calculation. When this problem become resolved I believe another ideas will come back to life.
2. Do you know of any other phenomena that could be described by Moore's law?
There are already few examples about using Moore law in technology and even some research about Moore law but currently I cannot now recall any. In parallel computing there is a law similar to Moore but it got different name.
3. What future innovations are you most excited about and when do you predict they will occur?
Honestly all known inventions that I read in science-fiction literature are already exists. If not probably there are not enough founds to finalize projects or probably I need more time to study this kinds of books.
Thank you for your input, you are right some inventions would not be even considered without previous ones. What are you calculating exactly that needs so much computational power?
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ReplyDeleteI disagree with the statement that rate of innovation peaked in 19th century. Obviously this depends on the definition of innovation. As Pawel stated, nowadays some innovations are well-known for years and are re-discovered and sold as a brand new idea or product. I think that we are reaching the limit when it comes to silicon and computing - further miniaturization will be very expensive. But there is progress in other sectors, like for example DNA-based computing described in last week's post by Emilia.
ReplyDeleteI look forward to see autonomous, hydrogen fuelled cars on the streets.
By the way, have you heard about the notion of truck platooning? Recently there was a completion of a journey of a self-driving truck convoy. It is quiet extraordinary that such trucks are already used on public roads. You can obtain more information in this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7vziDnNXEY
DeleteFirst of all I tend to disagree with the stance presented in Huebner’s article. Huebner defines the rate of innovation as the number of important technological developments per year divided by the world population. This result represents the innovation of an average person in developing new technologies each year. In a simplified model of the history of technology, in which the population remains constant, the rate of innovation is nearly zero at the dawn of civilization and then gradually starts to accelerate. Huebner concluded that by 2018 the mankind will reach the 85% of the potential of technological development. I think that this statement is fair under the assumption of status quo in technology development for the certain time and fake if we take into consideration new developments into this analysis. Every single day brings new discoveries in all scientific fields, therefore I am sure that idea of finding the upper limit of technological development is not feasible.
ReplyDeleteDo you think that further innovations will be much tougher and take longer to achieve?
Everything depends on the field of study, in some areas it will be easy to invent sth that will change the way we perceive world, in some not. IT is surely the first group. However, the perception of inventories is different to that in XIX and XX century.
2. Do you know of any other phenomena that could be described by Moore's law?
The application of Moore law in Microeconomics can be found in the article “The Economic Implications of Moore’s Law” by G.D. Hutcheson
3. What future innovations are you most excited about and when do you predict they will occur?
I am mostly excited by the autonomous automotive industry which I predict will establish its presence worldwide by 2025-2030 and Artificial Intelligence in Financial Markets which will replace many analysts work by 2025.
Hello,
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion it is very strange article. First of all innovation is not something what we can do that .... what they did :). Did they count number of innovations? What was the common denominator, which allows put the statement about rate of innovations. What is innovation because UE spends a lot of money for innovations. Are this projects really innovative (take a look on Pawel D comment).
I can not agree with that we are reaching our limits. The problem is in complexity of current solutions. We have better hardware and larger data sources. Now we have to specify how to achieve next break-point that will be kick for further innovations.
Common autonomous carts will be the closest innovation from my point of view.
1. Do you think that further innovations will be much tougher and take longer to achieve?
ReplyDeleteIt depends on the field in the innovations. If it comes for lets name it 'hardware innovations' like telecommuting systems (2G -> 3G -> HSDPA -> LTE -> 5G -> etc.) it would be more harder in the future to achieve next level on innovations or next great scientific brake trough. But if we consider process innovations (for example new approach to delivering products like Lean or agile approaches) economic innovations (shared economy model or any other that have not been invented yet), social innovations (social networks, WEB 3.0 etc) In my opinion there is still a lot to invent and needed effort is not that big. Also if it comes for software engineering it is evolving itself by delivering new approaches (functional and meta programming) new languages (GO lang, julia, etc) and new technologies (deep learning, AI)
2. Do you know of any other phenomena that could be described by Moore's law?
Increment of data volume
3. What future innovations are you most excited about and when do you predict they will occur?
blockchain technology adapted more widely in financial services and beyond them. Democratization of economics. I expect that to happen in next decade.
1. Do you think that further innovations will be much tougher and take longer to achieve?
ReplyDeleteWe have a problem to define "innovation". There is a lot of discussion about that. Nevertheless I hope that we will continue to innovate. Much of the rise in living standards is due to innovation — this has been the case since the Industrial Revolution. Today, innovative performance is a crucial factor in determining competitiveness and national progress. Moreover, innovation is important to help address global challenges, such as climate change and sustainable development.
2. Do you know of any other phenomena that could be described by Moore's law?
Unfortunately not but I would like to read more about that. Have you found any phenomena?
3. What future innovations are you most excited about and when do you predict they will occur?
Technology that will help people to get off the ground and not be limited by surface travel. There are trends, but nothing significant in the market for wide use.
1. Do you think that further innovations will be much tougher and take longer to achieve?
ReplyDeleteI kind of disagree with the main thesis. I have quite the opposite feeling, that we live in a world of constant innovation and breakthroughs. We usually don't see them in our every day life, because we don't use them or don't understand them (if they are not from the area of our specialization). Looking at the technology, even twenty years ago, not many people imagined that now almost every person will have such advanced wireless phone as smartphone. The VR and AR is not a future technology any more. It is used and developed now. And there are many more examples of course.
Medicine progressed a lot in last 100 years. To know how it looked in 19th century I recommend 'The Century of the Surgeon' book. It really helps to imagine how good healthcare we have now.
2. Do you know of any other phenomena that could be described by Moore's law?
Sorry, but no.
3. What future innovations are you most excited about and when do you predict they will occur?
Currently I am excited about the final of the research conducted by Warsaw University (http://naukawpolsce.pap.pl/aktualnosci/news,412140,eksperci-polskie-odkrycie-posluzylo-do-opracowania-leku-na-raka.html), which can be used to produce cancer treatment medicine.
1. Do you think that further innovations will be much tougher and take longer to achieve?
ReplyDeleteYes, I think so. I agree with presenter from presented video that it would be harder and more costly with time to achieve new inventions. The main reason is the economical limit and the second one is physical limit. Moreover creating new inventions requires a good knowledge of the specific science area. Of course there always would be accidental inventions but in my opinion they would be less and less.
2. Do you know of any other phenomena that could be described by Moore's law?
As far as I’m concerned Moore’s law describes only the number of transistor in a dense integrated circuit (in Central Processor Unit especially). I don’t know any other phenomena for which Moore’s law can be applied. I consider artificial intelligence (AI) but I’m not sure about it because of its limits. AI was developed very quick but recently it seems to be decelerated.
3. What future innovations are you most excited about and when do you predict they will occur?
I’m most excited about flying cars. I think it will be a breakthrough. Everyone can see for sure the advantages of this invention however there would be some disadvantages but all in all it would be very useful invention. Flying car is really possible to be created and especially when we use devices such as drones.
1. Do you think that further innovations will be much tougher and take longer to achieve?
ReplyDeleteIf we consider an innovation as some kind of a milestone for a mankind, then yes, for sure it will take longer and will be harder to achieve. To modernize the world, people need more specialized knowledge than years ago. That's why the time needed to invent something really important won't be short anymore. For example, another step forward would colonization of another planet. I'm quite sure that it won't happen during the life of one generation.
2. Do you know of any other phenomena that could be described by Moore's law?
No, I'm afraid I haven't found one, but to be honest, I haven't searched for one.
3. What future innovations are you most excited about and when do you predict they will occur?
As Marcin from the previous comment, I'm most excited about a transport technology which will let people get off the ground and 'drive' over the land. The cities infrastructure would change significantly. But I don't think that would happen in my life
1. Do you think that further innovations will be much tougher and take longer to achieve?
ReplyDeleteYes, and I think that is obvious for everyone. It was much easier to invent something new when humanity had nothing When people was learning more and more about the world, it was much easier to see what else we can do to help each other. Now we`re surrounded by technology, by different type of inventions and we are getting to the limit of our technology. Look in the past (I mean our lifetime) there was not many breakthroughs in our lives, I think that I can count 4 or 5. This is not much. We move our technology further but we are rather improving the quality of it than making something new that is brings a revolution to our lives.
2. Do you know of any other phenomena that could be described by Moore's law?
I`m sorry but no
3. What future innovations are you most excited about and when do you predict they will occur?
I’m sure that the next big step in the IT will be augmented reality (not only because of my research ). I’m also very interested about next big step in astronomy and space travels (trip to Mars). The third revolution that I would predict is moving away from the oil as fuel and moving closer to the green energy. This are 3 big things that can really change our lives
This video is very nice and I think that is the best article presented during this semester. But going back to questions.
ReplyDelete1. Do you think that further innovations will be much tougher and take longer to achieve?
Yes, and the reason behind is that we are very specialised people (and when you are at PHD you want to specialised even more) and to do some particular task we need army of man. We also have to remember that for example inventing wheel can't be compared to let say sending satelite on orbit (two of them are very important but scale of this two are completly different). So my point is that we cannot compare ancient inventions with todays one.
Verys interesting is also fact that even we are PHD students we should been doing something significant and what we do is a sub problem of a sub problem of a sub problem and we are not discovering anything new (I hope that someone does) we are trying to optimise existing way of doing something.
2. Do you know of any other phenomena that could be described by Moore's law?
Sorry mate but I don't know any.
3. What future innovations are you most excited about and when do you predict they will occur?
This most be teleportation but I don't know when it occurs.
Thank you for an interesting article. I believe that innovation must become more powerful or be revolutionary discoveries for the civilization. The causes are increasingly difficult to discover because the world of science is developing rapidly, more and more people are working in science and live on Earth.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, it is hard to predict the discovery of civilization before it appears. For example, before John Neper in 1614 published the logarithmic tables only Jost Burgi knew that something like logarithms exist. Probably nobody besides them thought that the multiplication can be replaced by adding a division replaced by subtraction. In the era of manual calculations it was a huge step of civilization which has facilitated the work of bankers, financiers ...
1. Do you think that further innovations will be much tougher and take longer to achieve?
ReplyDeleteIf we take a look at our phds, I strongly agree with this assumption. It will take longer and longer and longer... Even though, we have more computing power than we used to have, we have more researchers across the world and more money. We are still waiting for big brake trough in research, but if we compare our age to let's say early 19th century it's far harder to invent something new and exciting.
2. Do you know of any other phenomena that could be described by Moore's law?
Nope.
3. What future innovations are you most excited about and when do you predict they will occur?
I'm looking forward to see light speed engines :)
I agree with preceding speakers. It all comes down to the definition of the term "innovation". We live in times when re-discovering things and describing them as "innovative" is a common marketing practice. Though it is true, in my opinion, that inventing something really outstanding is getting tougher and tougher, as modern technologies are more and more complex. I am personally not excited about any future innovations. I think that we should focus on simplifying our life and slowing down a bit. I find the current speed of life pretty disturbing.
ReplyDelete1. Do you think that further innovations will be much tougher and take longer to achieve?
ReplyDeleteThanks for your article. It presents an interesting view about new inventions. It is possible that future innovations will take longer to achieve. I wonder what is the reason. It could be so, because people invent so many that it is so hard to find something new or it may be because we have live in a time of wealth and we do not need to invent many things or don't see the need. It also may be because of our education is focused more and more on gaining skills to be a good worker not teaching creativity and finding new solutions.
2. Do you know of any other phenomena that could be described by Moore's law?
Honestly, I have never heard of any.
3. What future innovations are you most excited about and when do you predict they will occur?
I wait for someone to invent a teleport so I could avoid getting stuck in a traffic jam and sleep longer. I don't know when it will be invented but probably I won't be alive anymore when it occurs.
I am an optimist, I believe that the world is still developing. And we are not able to predict the appearance of milestones. Which will shoot us to the next orbit.
ReplyDelete