The electric automotive vehicle is now a reality. The keywords for the new wave of enthusiasm (subjectively designated as 'hype') are: electric, driverless, shared, AI. They have replaced the keywords of lately: social, mobile, cloud, crowdsourcing and numerous others.
What we want to discuss today, however, is not the social psychology of innovations and inventions, but the financial events that accompany some of the new technologies at times of their introduction.
To use a classic example - the Panama Canal. It followed the successful construction of the Suez Canal (193 km long), which was a great economic improvement. The crossing required only 77 kilometers of waterway, and it could be even more beneficial than the other passage, giving access to the American west coast and the Pacific without the dangerous Cape Horn passage on the way from the Atlantic. However, it was initially a financial black hole: Panama scandals
A more recent example is the famous Internet/Dotcom Bubble of 1999. I has not stopped the development of the Web, and many companies emerged during or shortly after it (Google, Facebook). However, it brought about a huge reallocation of wealth.
The most recent economic bubble was not related to new technology, so the investors can be all the less careful about investments into what is arguably 'the future'.
The reference article for today:
http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/07/investing/peak-oil-electric-cars-tesla/index.html
Some videos, representing a different perspective:
The Case against Tesla
and
Tesla, Is the Dream of Elon Musk at Risk?
Questions:
1. Do you believe in the "Peak Oil" hypothesis? Could it be a demand peak rather than a supply one?
2. Would you invest in Tesla? Why?
3. Do you have an electric car? Or know a person who does? Under what conditions would you buy one, and when could this predictably happen (which year)?
1. Do you believe in the "Peak Oil" hypothesis? Could it be a demand peak rather than a supply one?
ReplyDeleteAre there population peak on Earth? Some say that 20 bilion of people can fit on our planet. Demand for oil is connected with people. So I am afraid that this oil peak isn't happening right now.
2. Would you invest in Tesla? Why?
Definitely yes. There are some rumors that Tesla may bancrupt, but this is company that invest in state-of-the-art technology. It is like Apple. They going to grow for a long time. Even today there is more demand for tesla products that Elon Musk factory can handle.
3. Do you have an electric car? Or know a person who does? Under what conditions would you buy one, and when could this predictably happen (which year)?
I'm very serious thinking about buying electric car like Toyota Prius but i havn't done proper research. I am going to back to this subject in two or three years from now. Perhaps you got occasion to drive this electric car in one of the taxi corporation here in the Warsaw
1. Do you believe in the "Peak Oil" hypothesis? Could it be a demand peak rather than a supply one?
ReplyDeleteSeems rather natural, we have limited resources of everything. So taking into account heavy dependencies on oil we will have a peak after which prices of oil will go up and industry will start loosing their ties with oil dependent technologies as much as it is possible.
2. Would you invest in Tesla? Why?
No, I'm not really a big fan of tesla, in SpaceX probably yes but in Tesla not really I don't think they cars are good they are just trendy but they are far away from what they should be.
3. Do you have an electric car? Or know a person who does? Under what conditions would you buy one, and when could this predictably happen (which year)?
No I don't have but would like to have one as soon as we have infrastructure in Poland.
Hello!
ReplyDeleteI don’t understand how one can reject peak oil :-) It’s like covering ears and singing la-la-la. The key concept is EROI: energy return of investment. It allows us to see thru prices fluctuations: how much energy we’re getting out us using up 1 unit of energy. For gas it was like 100:1 in ‘20s (oil literally squirting out of the ground) down to like 18:1 in 2010 (globally), but around 4:1 for tar sands and 7:1 for shale oil: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.049. As a bonus, this scale is non-linear.
So, investing in companies like Tesla, seems like a good choice. Or Amazon that eats retail world using robots. Or old petrol giants – those will float until EROI 1+ε:1. The reasoning is this: if Tesla and the likes fail – lost investment will be the least of my troubles.
Reasons I don’t own electric car are purely economical. I’m in awe of engineering behind electric cars. The center of gravity so low we could only dream of with combustion engines, single-gear gearbox, insane accelerations possible. That is the future happening now.
Questions:
ReplyDelete1. Do you believe in the "Peak Oil" hypothesis? Could it be a demand peak rather than a supply one?
I do not believe in peak oil hypothesis, Already we are able to live without it.
2. Would you invest in Tesla? Why?
In Tesla never, But I can consider having Toyota. Toyota long term goal is to have 0 emission cars including production of the car.
3. Do you have an electric car? Or know a person who does? Under what conditions would you buy one, and when could this predictably happen (which year)?
I do not know anyone who owns an electric car. I can consider buying one in 2 years
I don’t have enough knowledge on this subject but from my point of viewthe demand for conventional fuels in the next few years will be growing. Even if there are new techologies, they need time to make their price more available. In addition, the infrastructure is not well developed. Currently, I drive a car with a combustion engine. In the future, when electric cars will become more popular and available I will definitely be its owner - because of it's economy, eco-friendliness and a few cool features such as low sound emission…
ReplyDelete1. Do you believe in the "Peak Oil" hypothesis? Could it be a demand peak rather than a supply one?
ReplyDeleteI don't have sufficient knowledge to judge if 'Peak Oil' hypothesis is true or not, but for sure I can say that we (as a humanity) are getting used to the idea of the necessity of various forms of energy.
2. Would you invest in Tesla? Why?
3. Do you have an electric car? Or know a person who does? Under what conditions would you buy one, and when could this predictably happen (which year)?
I don't have an electric car and none of my friends has one. I can consider having one in the future, but when exactly it is hard to say. I cannot argue that electric car is more ecological than the usual one, but I also feel that infrastructure in Poland is not ready for electrical cars.
I never thought about investing in Tesla. I probably will consider which brand to choose when I'll be completely sure that I am buying an electric car.
1. Do you believe in the "Peak Oil" hypothesis? Could it be a demand peak rather than a supply one?
ReplyDeleteYes, I believe. On the other hand I think that peak oil will come in about 20 years. Why? As far as I’m concerned the oil deposits will be enough for less than 50 years. I think also that it will be a supply peak because of the increasing number of cars with internal combustion engines.
2. Would you invest in Tesla? Why?
Yes, if I could. Environmentally friendly technologies are always appreciated by me. Moreover I like Tesla's involvement in autonomous cars, although in my opinion Google is a bigger tycoon in this area.
3. Do you have an electric car? Or know a person who does? Under what conditions would you buy one, and when could this predictably happen (which year)?
I don’t have an electric car and I don’t know any person who has it. The purchase of such car depends on the frequency of stations prepared for servicing and repairing electric cars and especially for charging their batteries. Finally, the issue of the distance that you can drive it and its price.
I do not believe in "peak oil" hypothesis. And believing it seems to me like wishful thinking. The world would certainly be a better place if we were able to replace combustion engine with something more efficient and environmentally friendly. If it were electric engine, Saudi Arabia would be already bankrupted.
ReplyDeleteFor me, growing popularity of Tesla is made more by extraordinary personality of Elon Musk and his other ground breaking projects. Still, it's more 'hype' than something caused by real market necessity. Unfortunately, oil is doing fine and the demand for it won't reach it's peak in decades to come. So the answer is - no, i would invest in Tesla.
I have a car with combustion engine, but I was considering hybrid engine. Maybe in a future I will buy one. But not purely electric.
Hello,
ReplyDelete1. Do you believe in the "Peak Oil" hypothesis? Could it be a demand peak rather than a supply one?
I am not an expert in this field so I am not able to judge is it true (possible) or it is not. In the future we have to find other sources of energy - because current sources are limited.
2. Would you invest in Tesla? Why?
Yes, if it will be cheaper I would to invest in this car. It is premium car, well equipped and environment friendly.
3. Do you have an electric car? Or know a person who does? Under what conditions would you buy one, and when could this predictably happen (which year)?
Yes I do, but it is hybrid version that uses kinetic energy to charge batteries and standard fuel. So I already did it.
1. I guess it's true. One way or another at certain point we'll have to start looking for news sources of fuel and energy.
ReplyDelete2. If Tesla wasn't so expensive, I would definitely consider buying one. It's a car of the future.
3. No. Well, to be honest none of my friends has bought it yet. But it's a matter of time. Soon we all will be using hybrid cars or electric cars. In 20-30 years or so oil will be so expensive that we will have no other choice than to switch to eco cars.
1. Do you believe in the "Peak Oil" hypothesis? Could it be a demand peak rather than a supply one?
ReplyDeleteI’m not sure but if I must choose I would say that yes, I believe in it.
2. Would you invest in Tesla? Why?
Yes, I would invest in Tesla. I think that they need stabilization to cover all plans that they have. They are trying to change a very static branch of industry, this is hard and it is generating a lot of problems that no one though about but for sure they are going in proper direction
3. Do you have an electric car? Or know a person who does? Under what conditions would you buy one, and when could this predictably happen (which year)?
I do not have such car but I would like to have one. Two things that are stopping me are the high price of such cars and weak infrastructure in our country. But if I would live in US in a big city for sure I would be much closer of making such decision.
1. Do you believe in the "Peak Oil" hypothesis? Could it be a demand peak rather than a supply one?
ReplyDeleteI do not have much knowledge about this hypothesis, and relying on one article is too little to take the final position.
2. Would you invest in Tesla? Why?
I am fascinated with Elon Musk and all his inventions, and even by the way he thinks. I think his inventions are of great importance to humanity, and Tesla is one of the best. Obviously I would like to buy Tesla, although using it in Poland is difficult. There are few places to charge and I still think it is more suitable for use within the city than for a long distance trip.
3. Do you have an electric car? Or know a person who does? Under what conditions would you buy one, and when could this predictably happen (which year)?
At the moment I do not have a car, I only use borrowed ones, but they are not electric. I personally know one person who owns such a car and loads it at home. I would buy it if I needed a car, now I do not need it. In addition, as mentioned above, either you need to be able to charge at home or find a place close to do it. Also a bit problematic are further travels, especially to smaller cities, where in general it would not be possible to charge the car.
1. Do you believe in the "Peak Oil" hypothesis? Could it be a demand peak rather than a supply one?
ReplyDeleteI think that there would be a time when it would take place. Non-renewable energy source has its name not without the reason. However, the prognosis is unclear. I believe that we have few more decades till that goes.
2. Would you invest in Tesla? Why?
At the stock market? Sure, I think that now it's large boom for such high tech companies and that would be a good option.
3. Do you have an electric car? Or know a person who does? Under what conditions would you buy one, and when could this predictably happen (which year)?
If I only had enough money and there would be a supercharger near to my place of living, I would buy a Tesla right now. Unfortunately none of my friends has an electric car right now, however, it's not something unusual and most of them had an opportunity to drive them or be a passenger.
1. Do you believe in the "Peak Oil" hypothesis? Could it be a demand peak rather than a supply one?
ReplyDeleteThis hypothesis didn't convince me. Meybe in future that would be reality,but not yet.
2. Would you invest in Tesla? Why?
I'm reading a lot about achiwment of that firm when they make Tesla Roadster. It was amazing that electrical car can have as good statistics as fast sport car and cost less than 100 thousand dollars. If I could I will invest in their actions when they started,but now their value stopped growing so it would be waste of money.
3. Do you have an electric car? Or know a person who does? Under what conditions would you buy one, and when could this predictably happen (which year)?
No, I haven't and anybody from my family and friends too. In Poland is problem with service of that car. E.g. the nearest service of Tesla is in Berlin...nobody want with any small repair drive many hours in car or worse, pay for car carrier.
1. I do believe in „peak oil” hypothesis. Definitely I am more afraid of demand peak, because in my opinion the real problem shall appear when there will be no possibility to answer society’s needs in this respect. That’s why looking for alternatives and general introducing such solutions is the only way to prevent the inevitable catastrophe.
ReplyDelete2. I am not attached to the idea the only car it is worth to invest is Tesla. I believe in potential of this producer and mark, but I could start with something else in the beginning. Maybe in several years I would like to invest, when we are more familiar with electric cars in everyday life, and maybe when they are more popular and cheaper.
3. I don’t electric car, but I dream to have one. My children demand being more ecologic, in particular in this respect also to change my car. But there is several problems to sove. First of all, electrical car is more expensive. Instead it should be cheaper in use. Normally it is, but in Białystok, where I live, we still don’t have enough charging points. I guess I would faster buy such car, if I lived in Warsaw or Wrocław. I hope it will be easier very soon, let’s say in two years.