I have noticed it's pretty hard to find a good topic for general conversation if we publish something very narrow so I have decided to give you a rather general more conversational topic. I have found a video of with Ray Kurzweil "Predictions for 2020s With Ray Kurzweil". I think everybody heard about Mr. Kurzweil and his achievements in the field of new technologies and I hope you enjoy his vision of the future.
1) Can you suggest other great visioners worth following on the twitter, facebook, youtube or read their publications? Please share and describe shortly why you suggest this person.
2) What do you think about idea of open source clothing and having all products as virtual files?
3) Do you agree on the thesis we will have more and more systems decentralised as this guarantees more stability and especially do you think it's possible to have one decentralised currency?
Thank you and enjoy.
M
1) Can you suggest other great visioners worth following on the twitter, facebook, youtube or read their publications? Please share and describe shortly why you suggest this person.
ReplyDeleteI have never been interested in futurists and theirs visions of future, but after short research I think that it is worth following some visioners. The first one is John Naisbitt. He is the author of several books about megatrends. The other one is Faith Popcorn who was called “Nostradamus of marketing”. And the last one is Paul Roberts who covers the complex interplay of economics, technology and the natural world.
2) What do you think about idea of open source clothing and having all products as virtual files?
When it comes to clothes and many other designer products I see great chance for more and more fake products. If in the future we will have 3D printers and clothing printer and other similar devices we will be more independent from shops and crazily expensive products. Is we can print gucci bag then we will not pay 5000$ for it is a shop. In general I like the idea because creative people will have ease in doing their’s projects in simple way.
3) Do you agree on the thesis we will have more and more systems decentralised as this guarantees more stability and especially do you think it's possible to have one decentralised currency?
I think that people with strong national traditions like USA will never give up with dollars and change currency for the other one. If we had only one currency developed nations would certainly benefit since there would no longer be currency risk in international trade. In addition, there would be somewhat of a levelling of the global playing field, since nations like China could no longer use currency exchange as a means to make their goods cheaper on the global market.The most obvious downfall to the introduction of a global currency would be the loss of independent monetary policy to regulate national economies.
1) Thanks a lot I ll take a closer look at them.
Delete2) Well I think there will be still the way to sell a file for 5k USD=)
3) Well depends who will introduce the change and impose the currency if that will be USA or other superpower we can at least divide planet into 3-4 main currencies and economical regions.
1) Can you suggest other great visioners worth following on the twitter, facebook, youtube or read their publications? Please share and describe shortly why you suggest this person.
ReplyDeleteHonestly I stopped to follow this kind of subject fot a long time. I used to follow the futuristic ideas of Stephen Hawking or Bill Gates but right now I do not have time for such a staff :)
Lots of ideas never happen. Almost all movies and theories about the future did not happen. For example in 2016 according to Space Odyssey we should be far far away in space :) I know it is not based on science but only sci-fi but like I mentioned lots of ideas are late than we thought. It is not easy to predict the future. Not many of people are so accurate to have right. Speaking about future does not mean you know when it happen. So I am afraid I will not share with you any interesting people.
2) What do you think about idea of open source clothing and having all products as virtual files?
This thesis is quite intriguing. From one side this could be interesting experience but form the other I see lots of problems. For example. There is general opinion that in time of crisis you should buy some precious metals. Every country is doing such a thing. The bankers and people responsible for putting money they always doing this in some physical staff. The idea of virtual and open source library of things is interesting but I do not thing it will ever happen in the way they predict.
The second disadvantage I see is the security. We all know how big problem is personal security for a regular people. Those things are a serious problem in my opinion. I would not trust any digital system to keep all my personal and tradeable resources in current situation.
But perhaps in the very very fa future there will be some opportunity to obey such a policy :)
3) Do you agree on the thesis we will have more and more systems decentralised as this guarantees more stability and especially do you think it's possible to have one decentralised currency?
Again. Like I said in previous answer there need to be opportunity for such a need. This is not a good vision for banks. If someone is smart he invest in all types of currencies, with focus on the most stable or trustful. The same is with precious metals and other valuable staffs. Decentralised currency is a great idea and personally I support this. Problem is that it is not up from us to change it. Banks will not allow this. Bitcoin currency is not legal in few countries. It is changing but not very fast. The people do not trust this in big scale. Only when people will start to use this kind of currency in a serious big scale will change a thing. Right now it is only a interesting idea for a small group of people.
1) Thank you Rafal, I think space odyssey pretty much contributed in at least conceptual way, we might not travel in 2016 to let's say Mars but in 2030 and what is the difference of 14 years for man kind when we are talking about becoming muliplanetary species and by that securing our own survival?
Delete2) Yes a lot of complications but I bet with different business model when big corporations will see it as a more profitable approach we would see it within 2 years on the market.
3) Well wider adoption is a key point to put banks in the position where there is no way back=)
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ReplyDelete1) Can you suggest other great visioners worth following on the twitter, facebook, youtube or read their publications? Please share and describe shortly why you suggest this person.
ReplyDeleteI cannot because I don't know anyone whose predictions ever became true. I've seen many short films from '60s or '70s telling how people would live in 2000 and I think nothing is realized. I also heard many economists saying that some currency is safe and it occured to be incredibly dangerous in a short time. I know some comentators whose predictions are mostly true, but they are basing on existing things and existing law.
2) What do you think about idea of open source clothing and having all products as virtual files?
I'm sceptic about this. Mr. Kurzweil says about the band which is playing on 3d printed instruments. Currently, the shapes were only printed, not the instrument itself. The sound of it is very poor. The material is not a wood. So, the question is - would 3d printers ever be able to print a wood instrument, so the listener won't know if it's a hand crafted violin or a violin from the printer? I don't think it would ever be possible. Same with clothes - would 3d printers ever be able to print clothes from desired materials? If so, would I have to buy a silk, a jeans or a polyester by myself to print clothes? I'd rather visit the shop.
3) Do you agree on the thesis we will have more and more systems decentralised as this guarantees more stability and especially do you think it's possible to have one decentralised currency?
Once more - I don't think so. This is unreachable and dangerous utopia. I can't even imagine that the bank systems worldwide accept decentralised currency. I don't even know how to comment on that, but this is just impossible. The topic is to broad to respond in few sentences or even in few books propably (and I don't think I'm the person who could say something clever about this).
I was thinking about this man, I was reading about him and I don't really know why he's so popular. His predictions are mostly obvious or incredibly general. Even if some invention accomplishes his prediction in 1%, or our imagination of his prediction in 1%, we can say that this guy was right. Maybe you would be able to print a shirt, and you could say that Mr. Kurzweil was right, but still... would this printed shirt be the one that you want to wear? I mean maybe in 3 years it would be possible, but my prediction is that printing at home from any material will be possible in 50 years. But I don't want to buy a chunk of wood to print a Gibson guitar. I want to buy a hand made Gibson guitar.
DeleteOh and today's wood printers are currently sawdust printers, and wood printers
Delete1) Well I kind of disagree on that, we had a vision to go to the moon and we did it, we have a vision to go to the mars and we will do it. We have scifi movies from the 80's on which people are using tablets and so on and so on.
Delete2) I'm really amazed by your skepticism, I will rather stick to "never say never" also have in mind the speed of progress which he is talking about
3) Well out of the box thinking people are those who are changing things non believers are surrounding to imposed rules.
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Delete1) I do not have a designated leader. I think that is very difficult to foresee how the world will look in the year 2099. The dynamics of development is comparable to the exponential progress. I think that with the current progress, we can predict what innovations will appear in the next decade maybe in two decades.
ReplyDelete2) From the technicl side, it will be possible. I do not see chance that this idea is adopted. Big corporations cashing huge money. The poor are more attached to tradition. The rich probably not be interested in the clothing on a massive scale, of course, such short-term trend may occur but it's nothing serious or permanent. Besides, we have to remember how many people in the world earn money while working on production of clothing… Technically, it will be possible, but rather as a curiosity
3) One currency in the world is rather impossible. On the one hand, it would be a very good solution to lower the costs of trade and help to create a common global economy. On the other hand, there are also have negative effects. We remember how banking relationships widespread economic crisis that began in the United States. In addition, there are problems of various kinds of inflation in different parts of the world, and probably a few others.
1) Thanks I agree, things we can try to imagine in 100 years might be very common or even old school.
Delete2) Probably if it can reduce cost and still deliver the product it might be the way to go, of course I'm not talking about current stage of printers. I think whenever there are money to be saved and make people especially big corporations will do it.
3) Probably one currency is pretty ambitious goal but on the other hand decentralized system is rather a matter of time.
1) Can you suggest other great visioners worth following on the twitter, facebook, youtube or read their publications? Please share and describe shortly why you suggest this person.
ReplyDeleteI can't suggest any visioner to follow on social media. Some people follow some technology leaders, religious leaders, political leaders or creepy vlogers but can't recommend any great visioner.
2) What do you think about idea of open source clothing and having all products as virtual files?
I think this is rather strange idea. I'd rather like to have clothes sew in a way as it is or even go back to times when clothes were really handmade and had some personalized look. or me it is bad idea to print clothes.
3) Do you agree on the thesis we will have more and more systems decentralised as this guarantees more stability and especially do you think it's possible to have one decentralised currency?
There is no obvious answer for this question. I think that it may lead to less stability in case of crisis. If we have more smaller and isoleted or partially isolated systems crises in one does not influence the whole globe as it is in case of one general system or currency.
1) Really not even one?
Delete2) OK
3) So decentralized system thank you.
M
1. What i can recommend for wallowing are:
ReplyDeleteKen Shwaber
Mike Cohn
Jeff Sutherland
2. Idea is great but i do no think it is going to happen. Large corporations are open sourcing something only when there are beneficial after the process.
3. Yes I do agree, we are currently watch the rise of decentralizes systems and models like shared economy concept, decentralized networks and protocols like blockchain and other reputation based systems.
1) Thanks I will have a closer look.
Delete2) I think it's all about business model, how about all files are open source but profit is made on the usage or material needed for specific file?
3) Thanks
1) Can you suggest other great visioners worth following on the twitter, facebook, youtube or read their publications? Please share and describe shortly why you suggest this person.
ReplyDeleteActually I don't follow futurists in my social media. It is fun to hear about their ideas from time to time, but I am not interested enought in this subject to read such texts more regularly. The only "futurist" I like is Elon Musk, but he rather predicts the nearest future and makes his prediction true ;)
2) What do you think about idea of open source clothing and having all products as virtual files?
I really like this idea. I like to have new clothes, but I don't like shopping, so it seems perfect to me. The comparison to ebooks is very accurate, it may look similar, some people will buy clothes as a file to print, but other will prefer the regular way of buying clothes.
3) Do you agree on the thesis we will have more and more systems decentralised as this guarantees more stability and especially do you think it's possible to have one decentralised currency?
To be honest I don't know. It seems like it goes this way, but when we talk about money/currency we should not forget that there are banks which are really strong subjects in our world (usually supported by the governments) and it will be very difficult to create something that may weaken them.
1) Can you suggest other great visioners worth following on the twitter, facebook, youtube or read their publications? Please share and describe shortly why you suggest this person.
ReplyDeleteI am following Nouriel Roubini and Grzegorz Kołodko. Both visioners are world famous economists who concentrate on political economics and predictions around the furure.
2) What do you think about idea of open source clothing and having all products as virtual files?
Since I am traditionalist I prefer old school clothes. Similarly the remainder of products.
3) Do you agree on the thesis we will have more and more systems decentralised as this guarantees more stability and especially do you think it's possible to have one decentralised currency?
I am of the opinion that the idea of one decentralised currency is utopia. No major governments will be able to leave the fiscal policy and no single central bank will agree to leave the monetarny policy to the free market. Certain markets need still to be under regulation. One of them is currency market.
First of all I would like to ask why your article was published in this week? There is no such period as you wrote – it is a Christmas time… so thanks for your gift :/
ReplyDelete1) Can you suggest other great visioners worth following on the twitter, facebook, youtube or read their publications? Please share and describe shortly why you suggest this person.
I don’t know such people. Moreover I don’t usually like to specify such people as the visioners as you wrote. In my opinion it isn’t hard to deliberate on the future – the problem is in verifiability of those theories otherwise it is just a claptrap.
2) What do you think about idea of open source clothing and having all products as virtual files?
It seems really convenient. I think it is very possible to use such technology in near feature – I would love to! :)
3) Do you agree on the thesis we will have more and more systems decentralised as this guarantees more stability and especially do you think it's possible to have one decentralised currency?
In my point of view it is impossible to use one decentralised currency. If we oust all local currencies and replace them by virtual one, something new and real will displace virtual currency. I think that market is addicted to real currency and it would be very hard to set in one decentralised currency.
1) Can you suggest other great visioners worth following on the twitter, facebook, youtube or read their publications? Please share and describe shortly why you suggest this person.
ReplyDeleteHi, regarding your first question I think it is great to follow up visioners social accounts. It is a good idea to follow their videos because we can find there a lot of interesting speeches available on their official YouTube channels. This kind of activity takes a lot of time. I read a lot of ideas, which were too abstract for me and has not been implemented till now.
Unfortunately I do not have a lot of time to follow any of their virtual profiles. My free time I spend with family and by checking sport results.
2) What do you think about idea of open source clothing and having all products as virtual files?
I think it is strange and it can kill producers. Maybe I am wrong. But the way an idea is very interesting. I am not sure are we ready to understand and follow this convention. What with copyrights? Virtual file in example is easy to exchange but its sharing is not complicated too (regarding to copyrights).
3) Do you agree on the thesis we will have more and more systems decentralised as this guarantees more stability and especially do you think it's possible to have one decentralised currency?
There was similar discussion last week I believe, when we were talking about bit coin. Fundamental part of present currency is its reflection in gold. If we want to establish new currency we need confirm its value in a gold.
Maciej – thank you very much for an interesting movie. I like watching SF movies and in my opinion such kind of predictions like this is SF of course. I don’t know what for but many people try to predict future in many areas: In technology, in religion, in sociology etc. In my opinion life is unpredictable and people who try to predict development in technology or others areas are simple charlatans. They try to reveal some future ideas to achieve popularity or fame. In my opinion future develops in laboratory when researchers day by day research and solve problems. About idea of open source clothing and having all products as virtual files I reckon these are big fake. Problems with security, 3D printers, intellectual property rights prevent this crazy idea. Central and decentralized systems have both advantages and disadvantages and this is very difficult to say which one is better. I reckon this depends on the systems. In my opinion for example for common people the currency should be central system to avoid all problems with changes and the value balance.
ReplyDeleteI agree with ZC. The movie was very interesting but for me it is a total abstraction and science fiction. I don't know why we tend to focus on future that much. We should try to make the best of present times. As it is "now" that we are living our life. But people tend to concentrate either on the past or on the future. We underestimate the value and importance of present time. When it comes to central or decentralised systems, it's true that both have advantages and disadvantages. I am not sure which system is better. I guess it depends on a particular community and its way of functioning, culture, system of values etc.
ReplyDelete1) Can you suggest other great visioners worth following on the twitter, facebook, youtube or read their publications? Please share and describe shortly why you suggest this person.
ReplyDeleteI am not very fond of the futuristic visions. I love Stephen Hawking ,of course, and appreciated a few dystopian futuristic TV series such as Black Mirror or Westworld but if I was to recommend any persona on Twitter or Facebook I honestly would have no idea.
2) What do you think about idea of open source clothing and having all products as virtual files?
Such an idea would help the poorest (I am also in favor of such initiatives as basic income). It would most certainly have to go together with the branded (and more expensive) alternatives.
3) Do you agree on the thesis we will have more and more systems decentralised as this guarantees more stability and especially do you think it's possible to have one decentralised currency?
In my opinion, it is not possible to have one currency which is fully decentralised due to its strong ties to economy. Any currency that is not interconnected with global markets is doomed to fail as it will not reflect any global trends in economy (growth, recession etc)
Hey, let me answer your questions:
ReplyDelete1) Our colleagues already gave many exceptional examples of great visioneers like i.e Stephen Hawking. Nobody mentioned Elon Musk though, I think he should be on the list too, not only as a visioneer but also inventor of these future technologies.
2) Open source clothing sounds great, and keeping all products as virtual files could come in handy for various reasons, one of them being the easy creation of them, as long as we have a capable 3D printer with the right materials (or even perhaps one that could create materials out of basic atoms and subatomic particles, how awesome would be to create everything from any source).
3) Bitcoin shows us that decentralized currency is not a sci-fi concept. ;)
Thanks Maciej. I will try to answer the best I can...
ReplyDelete1) Can you suggest other great visioners worth following on the twitter, facebook, youtube or read their publications? Please share and describe shortly why you suggest this person.
I don't think so. I think about about Reverend Klimuszko, but he was clairvoyant rather than visionary.
2) What do you think about idea of open source clothing and having all products as virtual files?
I think it is a great idea, but I just don't see that happening. I am very skeptical.
3) Do you agree on the thesis we will have more and more systems decentralised as this guarantees more stability and especially do you think it's possible to have one decentralised currency?
There is a proof that decentralized system are way more stable than centralized ones. You're actually using the living proof at this very moment: think of TCP.
As far as currency is concerned... Technically it is. Politically is not. It will never happen.
1) Can you suggest other great visioners worth following on the twitter, facebook, youtube or read their publications? Please share and describe shortly why you suggest this person.
ReplyDeleteI try to think in a bit different thing. Nowadays I am very afraid of “following” a single person. People can have great ideas but blind following can create problems. I am rather trying to follow or rather observe a different people that have very different ideas
2) What do you think about idea of open source clothing and having all products as virtual files?
Crowdfounding, open source ideas….they all are fantastic ideas but in our community they are often destroyed that is way I don’t believe in them
3) Do you agree on the thesis we will have more and more systems decentralised as this guarantees more stability and especially do you think it's possible to have one decentralised currency?
Yes I do
1) Can you suggest other great visioners worth following on the twitter, facebook, youtube or read their publications? Please share and describe shortly why you suggest this person.
ReplyDeleteI don't think so. I think about about Reverend Klimuszko, but he was clairvoyant rather than visionary.
2) What do you think about idea of open source clothing and having all products as virtual files?
I think it is a great idea, but I just don't see that happening. I am very skeptical.
3) Do you agree on the thesis we will have more and more systems decentralised as this guarantees more stability and especially do you think it's possible to have one decentralised currency?
There is a proof that decentralized system are way more stable than centralized ones. You're actually using the living proof at this very moment: think of TCP.
As far as currency is concerned... Technically it is. Politically is not. It will never happen.
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