Source
http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/19/1/2.html
Hello, this week I want to discuss about ”Simulating Trends in Artificial Influence Networks” that describes artificial influence networks. Influence of society behaviours on the single person have been confirmed by lot of researches. When we are in situation, which we do not have information about legal rules or we have not met similar situation before (moral decision) then we will follow people. It shows that in the special circumstances influence of the environment may lead to not legal or moral decisions and behaviours. Additionally this situation might be the source of new rules development. Group of people involved in this story might extend this ”new” rule to another one. This group of rules is known as social rules, or as social norms.
1. What do you think about simulations? Can they strictly predict humans behaviours?
2. What is the trend strangest that you have ever heard, or even better you have followed (then how long, and why :) )?
3. Why most of people follow trends? Do you agree with this thesis?
Thanks for the comments.
1. What do you think about simulations? Can they strictly predict humans behaviours?
ReplyDeleteWhat do You mean by strictly predict. I think every can be modeled, model accuracy can be fine-tuned. If we will be able to provide enough training data we could achieve a lot.
3. Why most of people follow trends? Do you agree with this thesis?
I do agree with this statement people in general as a species has evolved to live in a group and fallow trends
Hello,
Delete1. "Strictly predict" means that are we able to include as much rules to show humans behaviour in situation when they run away from danger. Humans are different, they have different moods, bad day etc. Do we know enough rules to model human behaviours? After our last semester I am not sure :).
Regarding to 3rd point - I do agree too.
As per question no. 1 I think that in general simulations are more or less accurate, as long as it is taken into account that from every rule there is an exception. So yes, I think that simulations can predict human behaviour, but no, I don't think that they can "strictly" predict it. There is always present an individual that will not follow the majority of the group, that one unique person that will behave in a very diffent manner than the majority of human beings. As per question no. 2 The strangest trend that I ever encountered is the church of the flying spaghetti monster and its follower. I was certain that this cult was created to make fun of people, but it does exist, it is considered a legitimate religion, and it does have millions of devoted followers. I think that people follow trends due to our natural instinct that makes us want to be part of the group. We long for sense of belonging, we want to be a part of a bigger social unit. We simply strive for acceptance. Without it we feel strange and insecure.
ReplyDeleteThank you for the answer. I agree with point 1. Simulations are a tools that can be used to upgrade for instance safety procedures. It allows to perform a lot of tests that can partialy reflect cataclysm, or other crisis situations. I believe that a good model is able to discover some imperfections. Its usage can be valuable input for further analysis.
DeleteThis church still exists, I think ;)
1. What do you think about simulations? Can they strictly predict humans behaviours?
ReplyDeleteWe do not know until we notice that. In my opinion it is very hard to predict human behaviours. It is not only my opinion. If we could do it with a 100 % predictions we could predict almost anything being connected with humans. But it never happen. For example we could predict human interactions when they run out a building under fire but we can not predict what will be best selling staf or something next year.
In my opinion this article predicts human behaviours in a specific situation - how trends works - but not telling us - does this trend will be trendy with 100 % certainly.
2. What is the trend strangest that you have ever heard, or even better you have followed (then how long, and why :) )?
Honestly I am the person which do not follow the trends. I am aware of that it is doubtful and somebody could prove that I follow some. Point is that I am not interest in any social behaviours. At least it is may opinion :) It does not mean that I do not know or hear any trends at all. Firs of all this blog style English course. You can call it a trend because in today's life lots of thing happen in world wide web. Facebook and any other social platforms are similar. Although lots of people predicted fall of Facebook and it did not happen till now.
So as an answer to part two of this question I can say I do not follow any trends.
As an answer to a most strangest trend I could put an example of human body modifications. The most surprising for me was an implants of steel balls or rings under a skin or body modifications to look like a animal or favourite celebrity. Of course people can do anything they want but even for me it was a little to much.
3. Why most of people follow trends? Do you agree with this thesis?
In general we as a human race are living in social groups. All king of group. In era of internet almost all people have access to follow any other humans. I am not an evolutionist but I think I found some article that put a thesis that living in groups was one of the reasons we survived as a species. Of course it is obvious because living in groups was much safer. Trends are a way to follow other people. There could a lot of reasons - love, leadership, obey, and probably even more.
But in this questions I found something opposite. In era of self adoration, in time when all commercials assure us all that we are so special, why there are trends? It suppose to be opposite. Everybody should find their own style or way to live.
Hello,
DeleteYes, it is true that a people are living in social groups. I believe it is a main reason why most of humans follow the trends. It is difficult to find the most surprising trend because every day we can read about new bizarre people activities and interests. I remember my wonderment when I saw group of adults men that were training on the children's playground ... after few hours I read about crossfit ;)
1. What do you think about simulations? Can they strictly predict humans behaviors?
ReplyDeleteAccording to me, every simulation is as good as it was designed. So much depends on the simulation.
2. What is the strangest trend that you have ever heard, or even better?
This is not my field. But once I heard about simulation involving racial and aggression. A small number of people are needed to make the divisions in a large society.
3. Why most people follow trends? Do you agree with this thesis?
I do not know if many people follow trends, but if they follow trends, because trends show reality on a larger scale.
We had to write an article based on own model in previous semester. I thought it is easy task and now I can say that I was wrong. Main problem is parameters collection and their proper implementation into the model.
DeleteTo be honest, this is not my field too, but I was wondering, what students think about that research area.
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ReplyDelete1. What do you think about simulations? Can they strictly predict humans behaviours?
ReplyDeleteAs one quite famous statistician, George E. P. Box, once said: "All models are wrong. But some of them are useful".
Simulation is form of a model of the reality. It would never become reality, the environment full of variables and always lacking constants. That's why the answer is obvious and sounds "no, simulations would never strictly predict anything other than result of different computer program". But they're useful, when done with caution and well calibrated, as the one that you've presented :)
2. I've never been a part of any subculture, nor have I ever been interested in fashion. The whole idea of being "trendy" is not really my case. But I don't say I'm not under influence of people surrounding me, regarding the music I listen, my political preferences ,etc.
3. Following trends makes us, humans, feel safe. It's quite obvious from the evolution's point of view, but the subject is nicely developed by my preceding speaker.
Ola, thanks for your reply. In my opinion cite that you used is accurate. Simulation of the weather is an example. We use simplified models to be able deliver weather prediction for further days. To deliver more accurate prediction of the weather for next day we need about 3 days for the calculations, so this kind of prediction is not very useful :)
Delete1. What do you think about simulations? Can they strictly predict humans behaviours?
ReplyDelete"A prediction is a statement about an uncertain event. It is often, but not always, based upon experience or knowledge."
Based on that definition I think that there is no such think as "strict prediction" we can only say with centain probablility we no what will happened.
Please keep in mind that we are talking about transferring knowledge about a sample of a population to the whole population, and to other related populations so there is no way to "strictly predict".
2. What is the trend strangest that you have ever heard, or even better you have followed (then how long, and why :) )?
I am not person who follow the trends so it is very difficult to answer that question.
3. Why most of people follow trends? Do you agree with this thesis?
Because that's how culture evolves. Everything that is commonly accepted now was once a trend. Suppose we didn't follow trends, we'd still be wearing animal skins and using stone tools (if you assume these weren't trends, which they actually were at some point).
Interesting point of view on a 3rd question. I believe that a change from post-pigeon to email did not need any trend. If something is useful and convenient people will use it.
DeleteRegarding to the answer on first question:I have to agree with you and previous comments - something like strict prediction is not possible right now. Maybe in a future? I am not sure.
1. What do you think about simulations? Can they strictly predict humans behaviours?
ReplyDeleteI think they are kind of simplification of human behaviour. Actually it is the matter of the design and parameters of the simulation how well will it reflect real situation. For sure we can complain how inacurate simulations can be, but sometimes we do not have better tool. Thanks to the simulations we can predict the general behaviour of the people e.g. during evacuation and figure out where are the places in the building that are bottlenects and need improvements.
2. What is the trend strangest that you have ever heard, or even better you have followed (then how long, and why :) )?
Usually the strangest trends to me are fashion trends ;) And the one I don't understand at all is "arctic ankling" - not wearing socks in winter :) (I would never do that ;) )
3. Why most of people follow trends? Do you agree with this thesis?
I think that might be two reasons for that. Some people do not know how to behave (or how to look) and they do the same as the whole crowd to not stand out. Second reason: the behaviour of the most might be seen as "cool" and fun, and that's why it is followed.
Thank you for your input into above discussion. I have never heard about "arctic ankling". I do not know who can invent this kind of trend. It is not convenient and good for our health. Arctic ankling is not valuable for any fashion company, so only pharmaceutical market can transform this trend into the money :)
Delete1. What do you think about simulations? Can they strictly predict humans behaviours?
ReplyDeleteI think that simulating human behaviour is very helpful but can be done with 100% of accuracy and are rather some kind of approximation. Human behaviour is very complex and sometimes may not be similar to the past observations due to some reasons. Even very complex simulations are not able to analyse all the cases.
2. What is the trend strangest that you have ever heard, or even better you have followed (then how long, and why :) )?
I don't like to follow trends but in some way I have to follow them like all of us. For example fashion, if someone were medieval clothes she or he would look strange so everyone in each epoch wears more or less similar clothes.
3. Why most of people follow trends? Do you agree with this thesis?
In my opinion people follow trends to feel as a part of a group. They also want to appear as a person who knows what is going on.
Thank you for your opinion. Probably you mean it can not be done with 100% accuracy. I understand that it can be important for people to be part of the group, but is it reasonable to follow trends even if they don't have any sense - like in situation when trendsetter is not using the socks? ;)
DeleteI postpone reading of this interesting article but I try to answer some of your question. I am excited to hear about many city games in town but I think the most excitement game is to make the best shot on speed camera when you ride your bike naked at night. Why we find so ridicules idea in population? I can't imagine.
ReplyDeleteAs for the first question I think every kind of simulation can predict human behavior but Only to some extent. I wouldn’t rely on it to a great extent. People’s way of reacting is not possible to predict. The reaction of a mob as opposed to the reaction of intellectuals may differ. The question is if the stimulation can foresee that.
ReplyDeleteAs far as the taking up the strangest trend in my life I have ever followed is concerned was collecting bottle tops, beer labels and beer cans. Everybody was collecting such stuff so I also used to gather that rubbish.
We are often focused on imitating others because we don’t want to be out of fashion. We just long to be trendy and on the pulse. But I think we should always have our own style and not a poor imitation of other people’s way of living, dressing or being involved in “fashionable” initiatives.
1. What do you think about simulations? Can they strictly predict humans behaviours?
ReplyDeleteIt is helpful, like every simulation. As long as it is accurate. We can easily simulate everything and getting amazing results. However, fail miserably in the same time. Most simulations fail, because life is pretty random, with a lot of variables and so on. In most situations we don't have enough knowledge to predict what will happen and how. We are trying to mimic, but it's not accurate.
2. What is the trend strangest that you have ever heard, or even better you have followed (then how long, and why :) )?
Just take a look at the newest trends for man's fashion.
3. Why most of people follow trends? Do you agree with this thesis?
To be part of the group? Most of us are lazy, if you want to do something creative you actually need to do something. Spend some time, try, fail, succeed and so on. This is hard, that's why people tend to follow trends.
There are many factors influencing the conquering states. In my opinion, good simulation is dependent on many variables. However, some of them are decisive others introduce noise and distortion. It is very difficult to find a group of significant factors. People follow trends because it is a method of natural optimization of brain work - so it is easier.
ReplyDeleteAd. 1
ReplyDeleteIf you do not limit the number of simulations possible to prepare for the case given, I would answer: I think yes, the simulations can strictly predict humans’ behaviors, because there are a lot of mechanisms ruling over our psychology schemes. We are exceptional while we mean our emotions, motivations, beliefs etc., but there is limited number of possible decisions of the action we can take, no matter in what situation we are at the moment which is being analyzed.
Ad. 2
Do you remember American series “Friends”? I remember all the teenagers wanted to look like Jenifer Aniston, so they even had their hairstyle made like her. I can’t imagine combing a special way just because someone looks like this.
But I generally don’t follow trends and sometimes even do something totally different, looking for my own lifestyle.
Ad. 3
People follow the trends, because it is easier to do something other people checked, than to go out of your own comfort zone. Trends give us feeling of being a part of community, being accepted in society, being sure nobody shall criticize us. Following trends gives us predictability, avoiding of stress. Individualism is for ambitious people, who do not afraid to have separate point of view, for people who do not care of other people acceptance.
1. What do you think about simulations? Can they strictly predict humans behaviours?
ReplyDeleteSimulation is a dynamic model of operations in reality over time. There is a need for appropriate assumptions to represent key features like characteristics, behaviors and functions. Regarding your question it seems that everything depends on adequate assumptions even prediction of humans behavior.
2. What is the trend strangest that you have ever heard, or even better you have followed (then how long, and why :) )?
I think I do it probably unconsciously. I try not to follow any trends, however, I think wearing particular type of jeans may be an example - flared jeans, skinny jeans etc. When everyone wore it, it seemed something normal. Today I would not wear flared jeans again.
3. Why most of people follow trends? Do you agree with this thesis?
I think that there are many theories which may provide good thesis and assumptions for a simulation model. People like other people who look like themselves, use the same device etc.
1. What do you think about simulations? Can they strictly predict humans behaviours?
ReplyDeleteIn our current level of technology I don't think that we are able to strictly predict something so complex like human behavior. In my opinion currently with our technology we are only able to predict only to some level of accuracy, but still simulations can be useful and help to make some decision. In future I think that our technology will be able to predict strictly predict .
2. What is the trend strangest that you have ever heard, or even better you have followed (then how long, and why :) )?
I agree with others that the strangest trends are created by fashion and some of them are really weird for me like for example earring in the nose or tongue.
3. Why most of people follow trends? Do you agree with this thesis?
I think that most people follow trends, because our minds and our psychology are designed to follow them, because as a species we evolved to live in a group. Thanks to trends it's easier for us to make people to like us and most of us just want that in conscious or subconscious level.
1. What do you think about simulations? Can they strictly predict humans behaviours?
ReplyDeleteI think it depends on the size of the population. For large groups of people humans behaviours can be predicted with great accuracy. As it is shown in the article – the more agents – the better accuracy.
2. What is the trend strangest that you have ever heard, or even better you have followed (then how long, and why :) )?
I do not recall any extremely strange trends but I think that one of them is tattooing. I would never do it. In my point of view it is painful and crazy in general.
3. Why most of people follow trends? Do you agree with this thesis?
Yes, I agree. Maybe because we have a social nature and we want to be trendy. Only strong individuals are able to be different. Sometimes it ensures a balance in our life – we can live in a society in a - so called - normal way.
1. What do you think about simulations? Can they strictly predict humans behaviors?
ReplyDeleteI found simulations as very fascinating topic. In my opinion everything could be describe in models. I think this is common opinion that now days we are facing the beginning of simulating era. It begun with massive data gathering. Next step would be better data processing. About predicting human behaviors I think it can by predicted with 95% level of accuracy, when we hold relevant data.
2. What is the trend strangest that you have ever heard, or even better you have followed (then how long, and why :) )?
I have heard some people are wasting their time to follow celebrities life :)
3. Why most of people follow trends? Do you agree with this thesis?
I agree with this thesis, but don’t know why it works like that. Probably it is usually the most convenient choice.