I would like to share a wonderful TED Talk video by Jeremy Howard, an entrepreneur, business strategist, developer, and educator. In addition to beeing an accomplished businessman, he is a researcher at the Universit of San Fransisco and previously worked as Chief Scientist at Kaggle.
Although this is one of the many talks popularizing deep learning and its applications it is nevertheless worth watching. If only because of entertaining examples of machine learning systems.
1a) Do you think that people doing white collar jobs face the same fate as blue collar workers? Is fear of automation justified or is it just a hype?
1b) What kind of jobs do you think will be automated next? What should be automated and what shouldn't? Do you see any safe niches or potential business models that could emerge?
2) Do you think that we should adjust our economic structures to reflect the new reality? What changes could/should we implement?
3) What other cool applications of deep learning have you seen? Care to share?
Technological progress is unstoppable. Nobody (even chairman PiS) can stop new technologies in our life. Modern countries use their new technology every day including new machines which replace human factor. Every day around the world machines replace people in different issues: in mines, in factories, on farms. I reckon one day in the future machines will replace people in every workplace but it will happen in the far future of course. I think In the nearest future blue collar workers will be replaced first but then ,when all of that is achieved and the machines gain enough level of intelligence white collar workers also will be replaced of course. It will be as in movie “Wall-E”. When it is done the question remains what will people do? In my opinion work made us valuable humans. Without work people will be bored and will look for additional entertainments as drugs or alcohol. In my opinion when machines replace people in their work our world will descent in the chaos.
ReplyDeleteIn this case, world descending to chaos, would you propose any actions that state could undertake in an effort to, well, not let world descend into chaos? :)
DeleteHi, thanks for a great topic. I can see that many are interested in A.I. and are very optimistic about it.
ReplyDelete1a) Do you think that people doing white collar jobs face the same fate as blue collar workers? Is fear of automation justified or is it just a hype?
I think this is just a hype. Also, I don't think that blue collar workers faced any 'fate'. I can still see miners or builders working. Some simple, repetitive tasks were only automated, like putting elements together or something like that.
1b) What kind of jobs do you think will be automated next? What should be automated and what shouldn't? Do you see any safe niches or potential business models that could emerge?
I don't know what should be automated or what shouldn't. I think we're living in times when new machines create new needs, and those needs are being improved or automated rather than our regular needs. I'm still finding a pleasure in cutting grass by myself, for example, I don't need it to be automated.
2) Do you think that we should adjust our economic structures to reflect the new reality? What changes could/should we implement?
What kind of new reality? What do you define as new reality? If we agree that A.I. is the new reality, then what is the reality for the A.I? To which reality we should adjust our economic structures then? The question is too broad to answer in few sentences in my opinion, but I think we shouldn't adjust our economic structures to anything that is artificial.
3) What other cool applications of deep learning have you seen? Care to share?
It's hard to give an example from the top of my head. If anything will come to my mind I'll edit the comment to let you know.
1a) To Do you think that people doing white collar jobs face the same fate as blue collar workers? Is fear of automation Justified or is it just a hype?
ReplyDeleteI'm all for automation. I think that every job somebody can safely automate. We should do it.
1b) What kind of jobs do you think will be automated next? What should be automated and what should not? Do you see any safe niches or potential business models that could accommodate emerge?
I see automation in places where there is not only the principles of creativity., For example Accounting.
2) To Do you think that in should adjust our economic structures to reflect the new reality? What changes could / should we implement?
Adaptation and progress are usually a good way.
3) What other cool applications of deep learning have you seen? Care to share?
I do not remember a similar application.
"I see automation in places where there are not only the principles of creativity., For example, Accounting."
DeleteYou would be surprised, as to how creative an accountant can be. As with any profession that is based on interpreting the law/regulation is not difficult to find two accountants with different understanding what can be optimized and what not :)
Do you envision that tax lawyer will be automated just after the accountants?
Hi Wojciech, thanks for sharing this. The funny think is, as a founder of Data Institute Jeremy Howard is on the verge of actually accelerating the progress in ML methods. We might face problems earlier :)
ReplyDelete1a) Do you think that people doing white collar jobs face the same fate as blue collar workers? Is fear of automation justified or is it just a hype?
It depends. Most of them yes. But to some jobs it won't happen overnight. I believe as a programmer I am safe for next 30 years.
1b) What kind of jobs do you think will be automated next? What should be automated and what shouldn't? Do you see any safe niches or potential business models that could emerge?
I can tell you what I would like to see automated: the management. Especially so called C level :)
I don't think that computer could do any worse in this type of job :)
2) Do you think that we should adjust our economic structures to reflect the new reality? What changes could/should we implement?
I believe we have no other choice. There will simply be not enough jobs for humans. We have to deeply rethink the whole concept of society.
3) What other cool applications of deep learning have you seen? Care to share?
It just depends what you think is cool. The cool thing for me is, I can actually use it on my own to resolve my problems. This is really cool :)
I am not ready to share my progress as of now.
> I believe we have no other choice. There will simply be not enough jobs for humans. We have to deeply rethink the whole concept of society.
DeleteAny ideas? The society envisioned by Zajdel in "Limes inferior" springs to mind. Although this dystopian novel has been primarily interpreted as a critique of soviet system, it is surprisingly relevant to this discussion (Basic Income, anyone?).
1a) Do you think that people doing white collar jobs face the same fate as blue collar workers? Is fear of automation justified or is it just a hype?
ReplyDeleteWhite collar workers are more safe at least at the present moment. People producing goods face huge problem which is manufacturing in china and other very poor countries where wage is super small in comparison to europe or america. If they want to produce something in their’s own countries they have to find solution to lower costs of productions and human beings are expensive cost. This is natural evolution that we will never stop. Because people care about low price not about what is hand made or produced in particular country.
1b) What kind of jobs do you think will be automated next? What should be automated and what shouldn't? Do you see any safe niches or potential business models that could emerge?
I think that all productions will be fully automated, now machines are used to produce product but humans are packing it and still are involved in process. In my opinion this will be changed first. I think that for now it is impossible to automate programming and some IT works. I can’t imagine robot performing surgery instead of humans. But probably in shops there won’t be cashiers because they can be simply replaced by machines.
2) Do you think that we should adjust our economic structures to reflect the new reality? What changes could/should we implement?
Well… From one side it is good that people will not work on very simple things, because they can focus on scientific research or some more intelligent professions. But obviously not everyone among blue collar workers will be able to work as white collars. Economic structures are changing day by day.
3) What other cool applications of deep learning have you seen? Care to share?
I don’t know any at this moment.
> can focus on scientific research or some more intelligent professions
DeleteDo you really believe that the majority people have to capacity to engage in scientific research?
1a) Do you think that people doing white collar jobs face the same fate as blue collar workers? Is fear of automation justified or is it just a hype?
ReplyDeleteAll depends on the type of white collar job. If worker performs same tasks each day - like reconciliation, I would strongly recommending looking around and maybe join PhD IT Classes, as most definitely such types of jobs are targeted as next round in the automation process. White collar jobs that require conceptual thinking will still be performed by humans, however not for much long time.
1b) What kind of jobs do you think will be automated next? What should be automated and what shouldn't? Do you see any safe niches or potential business models that could emerge?
Please see my answers for question 1a. I think that banking sector and shops are next round of automation.
2) Do you think that we should adjust our economic structures to reflect the new reality? What changes could/should we implement?
The endogenic economic models are known and in use for a quite long time. State structures will be changed "on the go" once the technological progress will face us.
3) What other cool applications of deep learning have you seen? Care to share?
I don't know them yet. Will update the post once I find out.
1a) Do you think that people doing white collar jobs face the same fate as blue collar workers? Is fear of automation justified or is it just a hype?
ReplyDeleteIn my humble opinion we will have to wait for this one to come. Deep learning can help in this kind of work but it won't replace humans in every task. Yes some people will loose their jobs but this is the way of automatization.
1b) What kind of jobs do you think will be automated next? What should be automated and what shouldn't? Do you see any safe niches or potential business models that could emerge?
I would love to replace all people in goverment administration. And when it comes to doctors and firemans etc. this is type of work that shouldn't be automated.
2) Do you think that we should adjust our economic structures to reflect the new reality? What changes could/should we implement?
And we are still talking about Poland? I think that Poland now is going again into dark ages so I don't think that it is possible in our country.
3) What other cool applications of deep learning have you seen? Care to share?
Google AI :D and Go game.
1a) Do you think that people doing white collar jobs face the same fate as blue collar workers? Is fear of automation justified or is it just a hype?
ReplyDeleteWhite collar workers will become the new poor as their jobs are replaced by computers, the Employees such as legal clerks and local government administrators will see their wages collapse as new technology makes their skills less valuable, just like blue collar workers have.
That fate will soon be shared by office workers as their jobs are outsourced to emerging economies and replaced by computers. It is likely that as the cost of computing power continues to fall technology will replace many more white collar jobs that rely on repetitive and routine tasks – or at least make them less valuable in the labor market.
2) Do you think that we should adjust our economic structures to reflect the new reality? What changes could/should we implement?
The most common answer for that kind of question is the change in education process. Problem is that education system is the most difficult one to restructure.
3) What other cool applications of deep learning have you seen? Care to share?
There are a lot of them please have a look on: https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-most-interesting-online-AI-competitions
1a) Do you think that people doing white collar jobs face the same fate as blue collar workers? Is fear of automation justified or is it just a hype?
ReplyDeleteSo called white collar jobs are still a wide range of jobs. Some of them definitely can be automated, some not really, Nevertheless I don't think people
should even be bothered by the subject for the next few years or even decades. I understand where the fear comes from but even if the "nightmare" comes
true these people won't work long enough to experience it.
1b) What kind of jobs do you think will be automated next? What should be automated and what shouldn't? Do you see any safe niches or potential business models that could emerge?
There are many jobs that can, gradually are or will be automated. Wether they should is a questionable subject. In many cases automation is cheaper for the company,
sometimes the human factor in the non-automated jobs causes damage or loss, it can even be just plain annoying for the receiver of the good or service, so there are
many arguments for automation. On the other hand though I undestand that people with certain set of skills need jobs.
2) Do you think that we should adjust our economic structures to reflect the new reality? What changes could/should we implement?
I don't know about current economic structures so I'd rather leave this issue to the economists.
3) What other cool applications of deep learning have you seen? Care to share?
There are plenty of cool application of deep learning like computer vision or natural language processing. For me the most interesting are applications involving understanding natural languge without knowledge of grammar etc.
1a) Do you think that people doing white collar jobs face the same fate as blue collar workers? Is fear of automation justified or is it just a hype?
ReplyDeleteI agree with my colleagues, white collars won't suffer from automation. Blue collars will, for sure. We can experience this every single day, but this is part of the progress, right?
1b) What kind of jobs do you think will be automated next? What should be automated and what shouldn't? Do you see any safe niches or potential business models that could emerge?
Luxury items shouldn't be automated for sure. The price tag is high, because those items are hand made. If we take a look at clothes. Rich people are paying thousand of euros to buy something extraordinary. Simple things should be automated.
2) Do you think that we should adjust our economic structures to reflect the new reality? What changes could/should we implement?
It's hard to elaborate about it. Moreover, we are working in IT sector, we are changing our economy and our life. Shall I stop, because I'm reducing the amount of workers we need?
3) What other cool applications of deep learning have you seen? Care to share?
Nothing special in this matter.
1a) Do you think that people doing white collar jobs face the same fate as blue collar workers? Is fear of automation justified or is it just a hype?
ReplyDeleteThe automation seems to be unstoppable. However, I think that the problem with the unstructurized data is still an issue. We still need human resources just even to to enhance the technology. For now it is still kind of a hype. Do we really know what do we want? If we can't name our needs computers will not eiher.
1b) What kind of jobs do you think will be automated next? What should be automated and what shouldn't? Do you see any safe niches or potential business models that could emerge?
Jobs like medicine doctors shouldn't me automated. It is my own hope because I am afraid that there are some diseases that cannot be treated by a computer. On the other hand, many of the measurements are made by devices and are easily interpreted. If I saw any potential niches I would not share my ideas via this blog ;)
2) Do you think that we should adjust our economic structures to reflect the new reality? What changes could/should we implement?
We always have to react to the incoming structures and trends, however, we are the ones who create them. What changes could/should we implement is rather a philosophical question. From my point of view we should implement everything what we can.
3) What other cool applications of deep learning have you seen? Care to share?
I am afraid I am not up to date with this topic recently. However, I hope that the other participants of the course will share new ideas.
> It is my own hope because I am afraid that there are some diseases that cannot be treated by a computer.
DeleteAfter reading comments on "Znany lekarz" I got the impression, that good doctors are are few and far between. Because of that, an average Joe still have to wait for a long time (and usually pay a signifiant amount of money) to be diagnosed.
Having that in mind I one say, that society as a whole, would be better off with automating doctors as it would democratize the access to specialist.
What is your opinion on that?
Thank you for an interesting topic. Technological progress is something that we cannot stop and most certainly cannot ignore. More and more professions disappear due to the fact that certain production processes got automated, machines took over work that was previously done by people.THough it is easy to predict which blue collar professions might disappear in the nearest future, with white collar jobs it won't be that easy, in my opinion of course. One would have to predict which field of science, trade will be most affected by technological progress. And it's not that easy with white collar jobs, because such proffessions to be taken over require machines using A.I. And fortunately for us a perfect A.I. computer has not been invented yet. So we still have some time before Skynet will take over our company posts and lives.
ReplyDelete1a) Do you think that people doing white collar jobs face the same fate as blue collar workers? Is fear of automation justified or is it just a hype?
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion it is easier to find job as a blue collar worker than white one. On the other side, both are so important and sometimes irreplaceable. Fear of automation is a real danger for some professions but it is a normal order of things, especially when we look on society after industrial revolution.
1b) What kind of jobs do you think will be automated next? What should be automated and what shouldn't? Do you see any safe niches or potential business models that could emerge?
I think that every kind of job whole can be automated or just in part. Safe niches can be only those where a man is ultimately irreplaceable, f.e. a doctor who diagnoses the man as a whole.
2) Do you think that we should adjust our economic structures to reflect the new reality? What changes could/should we implement?
I think we don’t need to change anything. Such changes come step by step not as a revolution so our economic structures will adjust themselves to new reality. We should only control these changes.
3) What other cool applications of deep learning have you seen? Care to share?
I remember only smartphones that can learn our habits and can automatically personalise their settings. Unfortunately nothing else.
> I think that every kind of job whole can be automated or just in part. Safe niches can be only those where a man is ultimately irreplaceable, f.e. a doctor who diagnoses the man as a whole.
DeleteActually, the author of this speech has a company that is quite good at automatic diagnosis. What do you think about jobs that are based on human-to-human interactions? Are they safer than knowledge-based roles?
I think we should be patient ... because it is song of the future. I believe that we are able (NOW) to exchange human work by automated work, but cost of the maintenance and manufacturing of this solution is much bigger. This is the biggest problem in full automation. This kind of solution needs less amount of human work and its effort. Never the less human control should be ensured. Otherwise each breakdown is source of lost time … if we do not perform maintenance and diagnostic work machine can be not able to perform fully automated self recovery.
ReplyDeleteHealthcare will be not automated - because a lot of performed works need a some kind of experience and sometimes improvisation. AI is very supportive in diagnostic right now, but I do not think so can it be fully autonomous solution.
Google AI is best deep learning example ;)
1a) Do you think that people doing white collar jobs face the same fate as blue collar workers? Is fear of automation justified or is it just a hype?
ReplyDeleteI’m not sure is the word “fear” the proper one. I don’t believe that in future people won’t have places to work because robots or computer programs will change us on our work places. Even if some jobs will go into the past the new will be born. Even now we observe new job types from time to time. This will never change.
1b) What kind of jobs do you think will be automated next? What should be automated and what shouldn't? Do you see any safe niches or potential business models that could emerge?
I think that all “manual” jobs where the lowering cost is the primary target will and should be automated. But I think that premium products where we want love the manual artists are in price won’t be automated. Also jobs in which our human senses or experience is the true value should not be automated. We often can make proper decisions without logic
2) Do you think that we should adjust our economic structures to reflect the new reality? What changes could/should we implement?
This is very hard question. First part: yes, of course we should adjust our economic structure. The second part: I have no idea what to change. I think that most of the elements will adjust itself
3) What other cool applications of deep learning have you seen? Care to share?
Everything related with computer vision, recognition of patterns, augmented reality and virtual reality. Those are fantastic things that can be upgraded by deep learning
Thank you for interesting materials. In my opinion, it changes the nature of work but it will be always needed. Machines not will be able to completely replace us. People will need new, more advanced qualifications. Currently, the industry is decreasing demand for workers but at the same time increases for service technicians. With the increase in complexity, there are new problems to resolve. Automation is already in all areas of life - sometimes with our guard, which will generate further problems, which we will have to work. Also, never specific full perpetual motion achieve.
ReplyDelete1a) Do you think that people doing white collar jobs face the same fate as blue collar workers? Is fear of automation justified or is it just a hype?
ReplyDeleteInteresting talk. Especially the part with English-Chinese translation.
In my opinion some of the white collar workers may loose their jobs, because of more and more automation, but the jobs that requires creativity will not be replaced by machines.
1b) What kind of jobs do you think will be automated next? What should be automated and what shouldn't? Do you see any safe niches or potential business models that could emerge?
I think that variety services will be influenced the most by the automation. The jobs maybe not disapear completely, but the devices used there may reduce the number of people needed, e.g. in medicine, social care or administration.
2) Do you think that we should adjust our economic structures to reflect the new reality? What changes could/should we implement?
Sure, we will have to adapt it to the new reality. But not only economy, but for example education and probably many more aspects of life.
3) What other cool applications of deep learning have you seen? Care to share?
Nothing comes to my mind in this moment.
1a) Do you think that people doing white collar jobs face the same fate as blue collar workers? Is fear of automation justified or is it just a hype?
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion, regardless of many ways automation will come to our lives there will still be a high need for people who would have to oversee this process of automation, deal with any types of bugs, develop new ways of automation etc. Hence the fear is overrated.
1b) What kind of jobs do you think will be automated next? What should be automated and what shouldn't? Do you see any safe niches or potential business models that could emerge?
It seems to me that in almost any industry there is some space for automation. What is important though that this automation should happen only up to a certain degree with human intereference at a later stage. For example, we could use automation in medicine for gathering symptoms, performing analyses, comparing to the database of illnesses and letting the human do the final work - assessing a list of probable hypothesis and making final decisions.
2) Do you think that we should adjust our economic structures to reflect the new reality? What changes could/should we implement?
I think that the economic structure would evolve to adapt to the new reality on its own.
3) What other cool applications of deep learning have you seen? Care to share?
There is a lot :) most of them already shared by other studens
> I think that the economic structure would evolve to adapt to the new reality on its own
DeleteThat's for sure, but will they be effective with regards to some a priori measure? ;)
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete1a) Do you think that people doing white collar jobs face the same fate as blue collar workers? Is fear of automation justified or is it just a hype?
ReplyDeleteYes, in general automation processes will be more and more popular and used. A lot of 'white collar' jobs will be vanished because of optimization process and chase for productivity.
1b) What kind of jobs do you think will be automated next? What should be automated and what shouldn't? Do you see any safe niches or potential business models that could emerge?
All jobs related to data analysis will be affected somehow. Risk analysts, credit analysts, finical brokers etc.
2) Do you think that we should adjust our economic structures to reflect the new reality? What changes could/should we implement?
In mi opinion this process will be rather evolutionary that revolutionary. Slight changes are happening already, new business models are getting more interests from large players and basically every industry is right now being disrupted by machine learning and AI.
3) What other cool applications of deep learning have you seen? Care to share?
NLP, diagnostics, froud detection, time series predictions, etc
> All jobs related to data analysis will be affected somehow. Risk analysts, credit analysts, finical brokers etc.
DeleteHaving worked in banks I've seen whole departments made obsolete by introduction of comprehensive solutions. Couldn't agree more.
You've written about jobs that will be lost. Do you see any opportunities to be pursued?