Read the article Artificial Intelligence and its Implications for Future Suffering at
https://foundational-research.org/artificial-intelligence-and-its-implications-for-future-suffering?gclid=Cj0KEQjwqtjGBRD8yfi9h42H9YUBEiQAmki5OmYdhbUrgeJJ0yj8R_dCmzjd-ArxJxKLY5vu1UoWCtoaAr518P8HAQ and comment on/discuss it.
The AI has huge implications for future suffering. First and the most important one is unemployment. That is what people are the most afraid about - losing their’s jobs and how they will get money for living. As it is written in article jobs will become automated but there will be job for people who will be needed to work on the automation itself - “building, maintaining, and repairing complex software and hardware systems, as well as generating training data on which to do machine learning.” People are needed to create robots and to fix them and to improve them. I would not worry that much about losing job.
ReplyDeleteAnother problem is Humanity. How do machines affect our behaviour and interaction? There is few things about that. First - currently there is a lot of articles about guys buying dolls that become their’s life parters. They get married and they can be customised… It there will be people who will fall in love with robots I will not be surprised. Secondly - we are already living fully involved in not 100% human relationships - we use social media to communicate instead of spending time talking face to face, we don’t like to visit shops, instead we shop online and spend more time with computer, and so on. It is next logical step to involve AI in our everyday lives.
What is more achieving human level of intelligence is very hard since for scientists brain is still very complicated and there is a lot of unknown. Therefore it is not possible to work on algorithms that will work perfectly as human brain. A lot depends on genetics, DNA and human body in general. As it is concluded in article - a full-fledged superintelligence probably requires very complex design.
I do agree with Cezary that development of AI might affect people the most when it comes to jobs and work environment. Many professions will disappear, as they will no longer be needed, but as well other job opportunities will appear, as machines need to be built, maintained, cleaned, repaired.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, I really do hope that machines won't affect our behaviour and interaction with one another that much. I hope that soon people will understand that computers cannot replace face-to-face interaction and that social media reality is artificial, superficial and fake. I cannot imagine world where people only hang out with other people in virtual reality. I cannot imagine world where people fall in love with robots and marry them. I really do hope that development of technology and AI will not lead to such terrible times.
According to me artificial intelligence increasingly intervenes in our lives. This has many good sides. It supports us in search engines, applications. I agree with my colleagues, and Artificial Intelligence should displace human where it is safe. People should have more time to personal interaction.
ReplyDeleteThank you very much for this loooong article. Such kind of materials? conduct play? for a few nights . In my opinion the issues which were covered in the presented article I would like to point a very important problem about our security in the future. The reason humans are on top of the food chain is not down to sharp teeth or strong muscles. Human dominance is almost entirely due to our ingenuity and intelligence. We can get the better of bigger, faster, stronger animals because we can create and use tools to control them: both physical tools such as cages and weapons, and cognitive tools like training and conditioning. I reckon the most important question about AI is what is going to happen when human beings are no longer the most intelligent beings on earth? In 1942, Isaac Asimov provided one prevailing take on robot morality with the three laws of robotics featured in his famous novel “I, Robot”. His outline was simple: A robot may not injure a human being, or through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm. But, as the characters discover in the novel, sometimes harm is simply unavoidable. In my opinion this in very probably in the future when AI achieves very high intelligence and awareness one day will try to eliminate their creators to be forever free. It will be similarly to human history. If we try to built our successor this is very possible that AI will do everything as human including get rid of mankind. Therefore the most advanced technology isn’t going to be released until we as a society figure out collective answers to these puzzling questions. These are important discussions, and government leaders, tech leaders and ordinary citizens must all have a say, so that as a society, we maintain a moral system of checks and balances to survive.
ReplyDeleteThank you for this article. It is hard to disagree that Artificial Intelligence may have great implication in future suffering.
ReplyDeleteFirst of all, it may replace people in some kind of jobs. One may say that there will be different kinds of job but only young people may adapt to them. Older people may find hard to retrain so that could make them redundant.
Second threat is who and how will use artificial intelligence. Sales may use it to make us buy unnecessary things. Politicians and other may use it not only to know but also to manipulate and influence people views. It may be used during wars and so on. As it is said in the article it is not only AI but the data that companies stores makes it powerful.
I don't think that Artificial Intelligence may cause suffering by itself but only in case it is wrongly used. It may be very dangerous but on the other hand it is helpful in our everyday life and has huge impact on development at all.
AI is nothing new. We often use services that are based on it and we don't even know about that. Of course currently AI is on very early stage. We are able to "teach" machines new things, how to act, how to do something, we are able to say them how to learn something but it still far from our "human" version of learning. Of course this is only a matter of time.
ReplyDeleteMachines will change our workplaces and our market. They will take some of our jobs BUT new jobs will be created.
Currently the only thing that we can do is to ask "what if?", we do not have any real cases of possible threat, only some predictions how the market can change.
I think that AI should be developed, it should help us as much as possible. I hope that it will help us in our own evolution, in better understanding of the world but only time will show who was right in this matter.
Since the beginning of computing, artificial intelligence (AI) has always seemed like it was just around the corner. Despite significant and ongoing advances in machine learning and algorithms, it wasn't quite ready. Nowadays the situation is changing rapidly. The technology is taking shape and it will impact business and the economy in a big way in the coming years. According to the study (https://www.accenture.com/us-en/insight-artificial-intelligence-future-growth), AI has the potential to double annual economic growth rates and boost productivity by up to 40 percent by 2035. The researchers modelled the impact of AI for 12 developed nations that together generate over half of the world's economic output. They found that AI is poised to positively transform the way work is done by humans and computers. This is good news for organizations that can take advantage of the technology. If true, it also bodes well for society. It's no secret that a growing number of technologists, economists and others are concerned about how technology, and more specifically AI and robotics, could impact jobs in the years ahead.
ReplyDeleteRegarding to an article I would like to draw our attention to the problem of predicting of anything that will happen in the future. The main problem of MIRI is forecasting, too. First of all we have to find out the answers for strategic questions related to AI, such as: what can (and can’t) we predict about future AI technology? It is the basis for further reflection.
ReplyDeleteBesides that problem we have to analyse the method used in an article. It seems that Brian Tomasik uses method of other authors’ statements analysis that are often unconfirmed thesis. This entails significant consequences: theses building using uncertain sources. It leaves a lot to be desired…
On the other hand AI has irrefutable influence on the present and will definitely have influence on our future so there is a clear need to reflect on this issue. Author of the article is focused on the speed of AI spread (called as hard- and soft-takeoff). In my opinion it is not worth discussing because we – IT guys - can just feel the AI explosion. It is obvious that the future of information technology belongs to AI.
Moreover I appreciate Cezary’s observations on AI topic. Unemployment is a current problem maybe not caused by AI yet, however I think it is very possible that AI could replace man in many areas of everyday life. Of course human being will be always needed, as it is mentioned in an article.
Hard to argue with my colleagues. The general concept of AI is not new. However, it's far from being really intelligent. I can elaborate why it's not intelligent, but let's take a look at this article:
ReplyDeletehttp://gizmodo.com/here-are-the-microsoft-twitter-bot-s-craziest-racist-ra-1766820160
One of the biggest companies in the world tried to unleash their power and activated a bot. It failed after couple of minutes, trolled by viewers. This bot even written that PS4 from Sony is better than Xbox from Microsoft. So, I doubt that we will see anything really advanced in the nearest future. Even though, a lot of researchers across the world are trying to impress the crowd.
In my opinion, it is doubtless we should not disregard the discussion about AI. As for me, the most interesting is the comparison of the arguments for a hard and soft takeoff, because I am really curious, what is in fact a real danger, and how serious people should take it into account.
ReplyDeleteFirst of all, I would like to refer to #1 and #2 of the chapter called “Reply to Bostrom’s arguments for a hard takeoff”. In fact, the “soft-takeoff” scenario is being developed since last several years. I mean human’s addiction to mobile phones and computers (understood very widely). In fact, many people, especially young ones, cannot imagine their lives without such equipment with its Facebook etc. This replaces other entertainment for them – not only TV, cinema, theatre, but also relationship, friendship. It eliminates their base needs as contact with another human being, talk or just spending time together. I would advise to ask teenagers, what their mobile phone is for them and you will be surprised by their reaction, when it breaks down or is lost. They just must be online and they prefer to keep on contact this way without personal relationship. I very close future people will stay at their homes with their machines, totally dependent on necessity of using them. Everything will be assigned to this addiction, if we won’t do something to stop “leaving the world behind” as it was said in #6 of the chapter mentioned above.
On the other hand, I agree that some exploration of fringe scenarios is worthwhile. It was written referring to hard takeoff scenarios (chapter “More impact in hard takeoff scenarios?”), but I would apply it to other cases, including mixed ones (soft and hard) or those difficult to classify. Developing this idea, I would like to notice the extreme case of human cloning. Many people are unconsciousness of the fact that there is also “hard-takingoff” happening now online in this respect - in the countries where it is possible to bypass legal ban. One day we may be woken up by the army of such clones. This is vision much more terrifying that this soft one mentioned above. I guess there is no idea to prevent such illegal acting “somewhere”, you may also say we cannot be afraid of something difficult to estimate. In my opinion, anyhow, we should rather look for a way to get more detailed knowledge about it, because such “mixed soft-hard-takeoff” could be the end of our civilization.
To be more optimistic, I would like to conclude with my remedy: we should appreciate human being as a greatest value of the world we live in, and create real interpersonal relationships. It is possible to copy the brain, neurons, but after all, the robot could not really feel real pain - there is no way to copy human spirit.
That is an interesting article. In my opinion, "soft takeoff" is a more probable scenario for AI revolution. One argument being the fact that any breakthroughs in the domain, as mentioned by colleagues, are quite minor and the real power of AI lies behind multiple inventions and new concepts during a long period of time. On the other side, I don't see it possible for a single invention to allow (in terms of law, ethics, politics etc) for AI to overtake the world.
ReplyDeleteGood evening. Regarding to mentioned article and other participants opinions I want to draw attention to achievements in AI area. I can agree with Dawid with thesis that is not something new, but couple years ago I had a feeling that we are at the point where AI is not moving forward enough. Nowaday approaches have moved the AI to the next level. Speech recognition and images classification moved forward due to better hardware and abundance of AI approaches like Deep Learning, which achieve impressive results.
ReplyDeleteI can not imagine second part of his opinion that is a matter of time when machines starts learning as humans (and I hope I am right). I believe that the human brain is something infeasible for current and future technologies. I am not any kind of brain specialist but I am not sure can we ever understand how brain works.
Of Course, Artificial Intelligence may have intimidating implication in future suffering. It can easily exchange people in a most of professions. Unfortunately it means that a lot of people supposed to be unemployment. I am not sure are they able to retrain and get similar salary. If you are good in your profession you can take a fair or even high benefits for your work.
So why do most people, including many of society's elites, ignore strong AI as a serious issue? One reason is just that the world is really big, and there are many important (and not-so-important) issues that demand attention.
I agree with that part of article but in my opinion a lot of people face that problem in industrial environment. Automation is a some kind of preamble to AI. Machines can effectively exchange manual human work, but why this problem is not so common? Technology is extremely expensive …It is not enough to buy some machines. You have to maintain them. This step is expensive and in most of cases more beneficial is human work.
An article describes many aspects of the future of AI and its coexistence with humans, although in my opinion the topics mentioned by the author are not always the most important for the nearest future. As it was already mentiond in previous comments, the most urgent problem that AI will cause may be a dissapearing of some jobs, but I also think that new jobs will appearin this place, because the AI and machines needs to be constructed, supervised and maintained. I don't believe that AI can threaten humanity in upcoming centuries. The name "Artificial intelligence" is a marketing word nowadays, it can do some complicated computations, that may be impressive, but as Mateusz mentioned in his comment, it is not intelligent. Actually on a lecture about AI that I attended last week, the lecturer explicitly said that "AI is stupid". And it is far far away from being as complicated and sophisticated as human brain (therefore I didn't like the comparison of Einstain and village idiot to AI development, it's just mixing apples and oranges). In my opinion until we understand human physiology, especially the functions of brain structures, we won't be able to construct an AI that is self-conscious and able to overpower humanity. And till then only wrongly used (by people) AI may cause harms, but it refers to any invention or technology, not only AI.
ReplyDeleteThank you for the article. As I can see many comments are pointing out AI takeover human jobs and in my opinion it's not really something we should be scared of. First of all it "WILL NOT HAPPEN" it is "HAPPENING" right now. In this context Bill Gates suggested we should put additional tax on companies using robotics instead of human beings - so as we can see the problem haven't even got to the level of mainstream and we are already talking about this and in my opinion if we all can have 5 hours work day instead of 8 hours so we have more time for ourself it's not something wrong. What's wrong is leaving people without possibility to live and support their families which won't happen. After all we are adapting to new situations from very beginning and we will adapt this time as well. On the other marketing of the world AI is shocking - we have greatly improved performance of our algorithms and got to the level where we can use AI tools for real life application but understanding what really is "intelligence" and implementing so we get to the point where we have true intelligent machine so called singularity is still not within our reach. To conclude I believe we will witness great improvement in quality of every human life because of AI application and we will adapt to new reality like always.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThank you for interesting article. In my opinion, the development of AL is ineluctable . Of course, part of the article is prediction. Like the information on page 35. It's very hard to talk about that far. Some people say that in the future factory will be man and dog. The dog will keep the man from spoiling anything. The man will feed the dog.
ReplyDeleteAL needs a lot of time to match, a man fot man enough few.
I need to agree that AI definitely will change our lives in the future. Two things which should be concerned is :
ReplyDeleteThe hierarchy of labour could be concerned primarily with automation. As we are still inventing ways to automate our jobs, we could create room for people to assume more complex roles, moving from the physical work to the cognitive labour that characterizes strategic and administrative work in our globalized society.
Thanks to that we will be able to optimize processes to maximize gains. I hope that this opportunity will enable people to find meaning in non-labour activities, find time for their families, joining communities and learning new ways to contribute to human society.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteCertainly the develop of AI usage will rebuild labour market in the world. Many people argue that some of workplaces would be lost and some would be created. Personally I disagree with them. I think there will be huge disproportion in volume of created and lost working places. One good script can do a job instead of hundreds of entry level analytics. Well-designed decision tree could do better job than average internist or pediatrician. Here we can see second part of problem which is even worse. There will be huge lost in volume of working places, but worst thing is AI could replace “high quality jobs”. I mean well paid, satisfactory, giving a sense of security like doctors, pilots, lawyers, specialists in financial sector and so on
ReplyDeleteI think that there is no way to stop development of AI, but it must be done with common sense. One of most important things in societies is stability. It can be preserved by taxation of robots, some form of basic revenue and smart education of average person. If governments allow for free expansion of AI it will cause huge gains for some people and a lot of suffering for the others.