Hi
all,
I
was wondering what do you think about Bitcoin?
Recently it made a lot of big waves about them, I found few articles
about BTC, so pleas read them and tell me your opinion.
Below
2 attached articles I placed a few questions.
Nobody Knows If There's A Bitcoin Bubble
It has become almost obligatory for mainstream journalists writing about
Bitcoin to describe the currency’s current value as a bubble. It’s widely
assumed that the recent increase in the value of a bitcoin, from $13.50 at the
start of the year to more than $250 today, must be the result of speculative
excess.
But I have yet to see anyone actually make the argument for this point of
view. Lots of people have made arguments that Bitcoin is nothing but a fad, and
that it’s value will be $0 in the long run. I think that view is incorrect but
it’s not a crazy view—it’s one I held a couple of years ago. But I don’t know
of anyone who has made a convincing argument that Bitcoins are worth
something,
but that the current price is too high.
As I write this, the value of all outstanding Bitcoins is a bit less than $3
billion. Is that a big number or a small number? It’s a difficult question
because the answer depends on what happens to the underlying Bitcoin economy in
the coming years. The value of Bitcoin-denominated transactions has been rising
steadily. If that process continues, the “Bitcoin economy” could be much larger
in five or ten years than it is today.
To give just one example, Western Union has a market capitalization of $8.5
billion and earned $1.3 billion in
profit in
2010. If you think Bitcoin will eventually become a popular way to transmit
money internationally, it’s not crazy to think Bitcoin’s “market cap” will be
in the same ballpark as Western Union’s.
Obviously, that’s just a rough back-of-the-envelope estimate. Maybe Bitcoins
won’t pose a competitive threat to Western Union. But the point is that at the
scale of global financial networks, $3 billion is a pretty small amount of
money. If Bitcoin proves superior to conventional financial networks for at
least one significant application, it’s easy to imagine enough demand for the
currency to justify the current valuation.
A lot of people seem to be comparing the current transaction volume to the
current valuation. But that’s a mistake. If you think the fundamentals of the
Bitcoin economy will support a price of $500 by 2018, it’s rational to buy
bitcoins at $250 today even if today’s fundamentals only support a price of
$50. So the recent rise in Bitcoin’s price is a bet on the future size of the
Bitcoin economy. That bet may turn out to have been mistaken, but we won’t know
until we see how people use Bitcoin in the coming decade.
Disclosure: I own some Bitcoins.
Four Reasons Bitcoin Is Worth Studying
As
Adam Ozimek points
out Bitcoin has so far largely been greeted with eye-rolling by
professional economists. One reason is that the cryptocurrency’s most
enthusiastic advocates tend to subscribe to a hard-money, end-the-Fed worldview
that is unpopular among elites. That has caused the latter to
reflexively take the
opposite view, treating Bitcoin as primarily a monetary policy
experiment and predicting its doom.
My sympathies are with the pros here. Fiat currency isn’t perfect, but I
think alternatives like the gold standard would be worse. But Bitcoin is a more
than a gold standard for the Internet age. It’s the world’s first fully
decentralized payment system, combining the irreversibility of cash with the
convenience of electronic payment. There’s never been anything quite like it
before, and as a result it poses a number of interesting intellectual puzzles.
Here are four examples.
Monetary economics
What gives money its value? One popular theory says that modern fiat
currencies get their value by “government fiat”: the government declares a
currency to be the official one, requires that currency be used to compute and
pay taxes, and thereby confers value on what would otherwise be worthless slips
of paper.
Bitcoin is a clear challenge to that view. It has no “backing” from any
government or other large institution, yet the stock of outstanding bitcoins is
now worth more than $1 billion.
The conventional response is to dismiss Bitcoin as merely a bubble, with no
intrinsic value at all. But that view makes it hard to explain the events of
late 2011. The value of Bitcoins fell from $32 in June to $2 in November. Then
the price started going up again, rising to $4 in December 2011 and to $7 in
January.
That should surprise you. Even after watching the value of their previous
investments decline by a factor of 16, a critical mass of Bitcoin enthusiasts
was prepared to pour millions of dollars into the currency. It’s possible, of
course, that all those people were delusional. But it’s at least possible they
saw something the rest of the world didn’t. Certainly, that was the conclusion
I came to. I
rethought my
previous skepticism and bought some Bitcoins of my own in early
2012.
Even if you think the current value of of more than $140 is a bubble, it’s
clear that Bitcoin has
some genuine applications. The number of daily
Bitcoin transactions has soared from around 1000 at the beginning of 2011 to
about 50,000 today. Figuring out the “fundamentals” that drive the currency’s
long-term value seems like an interesting theoretical puzzle.
Political philosophy
The great technological feat of Bitcoin is its solution to the “double
spending problem.” The cryptographic protocols needed for one currency holder
to “sign over” his currency to another have been well-understood for decades.
But no cryptographic operation can prove you haven’t given the same coins to
someone else. Before Bitcoin, the only known way to address this issue was to
have a centralized transaction register. Control over that list was inevitably
a point of control for the currency as a whole.
Bitcoin uses a clever scheme to maintain a fully decentralized transaction
register, preventing double-spending without giving anyone
de facto
control over the system. The global, shared register of Bitcoin transactions is
called the blockchain, and it’s organized into “blocks.” One block is added
approximately every 10 minutes. Each node in the Bitcoin network creates a
candidate block and then races to solve a difficult mathematical puzzle that
takes its block as an input. The winner of the race gets to add its block to
the blockchain, and in that block it can credit itself a fixed number of new
bitcoins (currently 25 BTC) as a reward for participating in this process. All
bitcoins now in circulation were originally created by this process, which is
known as mining.
When a new block is announced, the other nodes in the network confirm that
the proposed block follows all of the rules of the Bitcoin protocol. If it
doesn’t, the block is discarded and the other nodes continue working on their
own candidate blocks.
A few weeks ago, a node that had upgraded to version 0.8 of the client
software
generated a block
that nodes running version 0.7 and earlier didn’t recognize as valid. This
produced a “fork” in the network, with each half generating blocks the other
half viewed as illegitimate.
If this situation had continued unchecked, it would have led to chaos,
because it would have allowed hackers to spend the same bitcoins twice: once in
the 0.7 version of the blockchain and again in the 0.8 blockchain. Fortunately,
the most influential members of the Bitcoin community moved quickly. They made
a judgment call that it would be easier to get 0.8 nodes to downgrade than to
get the older nodes to upgrade. They persuaded those who had upgraded to 0.8 to
downgrade, abandoning the blocks they had created since the fork and accepting
the 0.7 branch as the official one.
It was important to move quickly because the stakes were growing higher with
every passing hour. Every few minutes another block was added to the
blockchain, earning its creator about $1000. For many of the miners, abandoning
the 0.8 branch meant giving up thousands of dollars in cold cash. The longer
the fork had lasted, the bigger the financial hit they would have needed to
take to heal the rift.
A core part of Bitcoin’s appeal is that it’s not under anyone’s control.
Supposedly, nobody has the authority to change the Bitcoin money supply, cancel
or reverse transactions, or otherwise change the attributes of the protocol.
But in practice that’s not really true. In the wake of last month’s fork, the
elites in the Bitcoin community effectively changed the rules in a matter of
hours. In principle, there’s no reason those same elites couldn’t
make other changes
to the Bitcoin protocol.
There’s a direct parallel here to issues of political legitimacy in a nation
state. In principle, most democratic nations have constitutions that bind the
behavior of government officials. In practice, a cabal of elites can and
regularly do change those rules with minimal input from the rank and file. Yet
the discretion of elites is not unlimited. In the case of both Bitcoins and
nation states, it’s easy to make changes that will be intuitively appealing to
the broader public. But even a broad coalition of elites may not be able to
make changes that are strongly opposed by rank and file members of the community.
Economies of scale and competition policy
When Bitcoin is described as a decentralized system, a key assumption is
that no single party controls a majority of the network’s computing power. The
randomized process for deciding who gets to create the next block effectively
works on a “one CPU cycle, one vote” principle. If any single party gained 51
percent of the network’s computing power, it could effectively take control of
the network, ignoring blocks produced by the other 49 percent of the nodes. A successful
attacker could not only claim 100 percent of the mining profits for itself, it
would also gain the power to block transactions it didn’t approve of by simply
not including them in its blocks.
Early in Bitcoin’s life, this wasn’t a cause for concern because the
barriers to entry was very low. Anyone could download the Bitcoin client onto
his computer and run it. But a technological arms race has made Bitcoin mining
an increasingly esoteric business. Today, the leading miners use
custom-built Bitcoin mining gear that costs
thousands of dollars. Indeed, this high-end hardware is so much more
energy-efficient that conventional PCs are no longer energy-efficient enough to
make Bitcoin mining profitable.
As a result of this and other factors, Bitcoin mining has become
increasingly centralized. Bitcoin miners have organized themselves into “pools”
that cooperate and share the spoils among their members in proportion to the
computing power they contribute. If
this chart
is to be believed, the top two pools control 53 percent of the Bitcoin
network’s computing power.
In principle, these two pools might be able to join forces and execute a 51
percent (or 53 percent) attack on the rest of the network. But doing so might
prove foolish in the long run, since that kind of power grab might undermine
public confidence in the currency’s long-term viability, since a mining cartel
might have the power to change the rules of the Bitcoin protocol in ways that
benefit themselves at the expense of ordinary users.
Data
Imagine if Visa were to give researchers a complete record of every
transaction it had ever processed. That database would provide the raw material
for numerous studies on consumer spending patterns, the business cycle, and
much more.
The decentralized nature of the Bitcoin protocol means that every
transaction is automatically published to the world. To be sure, there are some
limitations to its value for research purposes. Users can and often do make up
new addresses for each transction, making it hard to tell which transactions
were made by the same person. And the blockchain doesn’t include annotations on
why each Bitcoin transaction was made.
Still, a clever researcher should be able to extract a significant amount of
useful information. For example, many companies and individuals publish
official addresses for receiving funds. Also, in many cases it will be possible
to make inferences about which funds are related by observing when funds are
combined and spent together. And at a minimum, you can study things like the
volume of Bitcoin transactions over time, the average transaction size, the
fraction of bitcoins that are in active circulation at any one point in time,
and so forth.
Nothing quite like Bitcoin has ever existed before. Even if you think the
current price of Bitcoin represents a ludicrous bubble (for what it’s worth, I
don’t), it’s still likely to be a fertile laboratory for testing our economic
intuitions.
Disclosure: I own some Bitcoins.
Update: A friend who knows more about economics than me says that
Kiyotaki and Wright’s
account
is considered the standard account of fiat money’s value in the profession.
Questions:
1- Do
you think Bitcoin is a big bubble?
2- Do
you bought or plan to buy a Bitcoin?
3- What do you think when
you'll be able to do ordinary shopping by paying the BTC?
3- Is a virtual currency
necessary for us ? is a development of
virtual decentralized currency an inevitable progress ?